Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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671
FXUS64 KLIX 251721
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXTREMELY DRY...SO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS CLOUDS AND ELEVATED
WINDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. MID TO
UPPER 30S WERE NOT THAT FAR AWAY AS THE TEMPERATURE IN NATCHEZ IS
37 AND 35 IN ALEXANDRIA. EVEN WITH THE BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES
WITH THE LAST PACKAGE I HAD TO BUMP THEM UP EVEN MORE AS CLOUDS
FROM THE FRONT IN THE GULF MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE AREA TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT IN THE GULF AND PULL THAT FRONT BACK CLOSE
TO THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL GIVE THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL GO ON
TO POSSIBLY BECOME A NOR`EASTER FOR NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AFTER THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE GULF WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL. ONCE THIS
RIDGE SLIDES EAST THIS WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND
PICK MOISTURE BACK UP OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SOME GUSTY ENHANCEMENT AT KNEW
FROM THERMAL MIXING PROCESSES THIS MORNING. 24/RR

MARINE...
STRONG NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE SETTLING TO LESSER LEVELS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST AND MODERATING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WEST
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL LIKELY STALL DUE TO RESISTANCE FROM THE
EAST COAST HIGH.  24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  36  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  59  37  66  41 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  61  37  65  42 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  60  42  64  47 /  10  10   0   0
GPT  61  39  63  44 /  20  20   0   0
PQL  62  38  63  42 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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