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488
FXUS64 KLIX 190130
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
830 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG INVERSION LOCATED JUST ABOVE 920 MB
AND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING ABOVE
THIS INVERSION. THE SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND
AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN 750 MB AND 520 MB. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WERE OBSERVED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE THAT. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A
SURFACE TROF/FRONT REMAINS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH A WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE LANDMASS...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
OVER MARINE AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...LOWER 80S CLOSE TO MARINE INFLUENCES. DEW
POINTS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM THROUGH
TUESDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 700 MB SHOULD KEEP A LID ON MOST
CONVECTION. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 900 MB DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME
EACH NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AGAIN AT MID MORNING. OVERNIGHT
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS AND HAVE BOOSTED FORECAST LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE. DAYTIME HIGHS HAVE BEEN RUNNING PRETTY CLOSE TO EXPECTED
VALUES...AND SEE LITTLE TO CHANGE THAT FOR THE NEXT 3 AFTERNOONS. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY. IMPULSES WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BEFORE THE
FRONT WASHES OUT ON THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR
TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP
TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THERE. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION MENTION THERE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. 35

AVIATION...

WITH WEATHER PATTERN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...EXPECT SIMILAR AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS TO CONDITIONS THAT
PREVAILED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. AS NIGHTTIME COOLING OCCURS...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR CIGS AFTER 07Z. LIFR CIGS MAY
TEMPORARILY DEVELOP IN A FEW TERMINALS IN THE 10-13Z TIME FRAME.
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR
VISIBILITY TO PRIMARILY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE IN THE 07Z TO 14Z
TIME FRAME. CIGS SHOULD INCREASE TO MVFR RANGE AROUND 15Z AND
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z. 21/FR

MARINE...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING
NEAR OR BELOW 15 KNOTS. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE HEADLINES...IT
WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WESTERN OPEN WATERS...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. MAY BE
A SLIGHT SWELL ADDED TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR BELOW OVER THE OUTER WATERS. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  87  71  88 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  71  88  73  88 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  71  85  71  86 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  72  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  73  83  73  83 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  72  84  69  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$