Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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308
FXUS64 KLIX 240945
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD SO THIS
PACKAGE IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE PEARL RIVER. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS WELL
EAST OF LOCAL AREA ALREADY AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
IS KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 7 TO 10 MPH RANGE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...AND A BIT HIGHER IN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S EXTREME
SOUTHEAST.

DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...KEEP THAT JACKET HANDY
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS ALLOW FOR FAIRLY EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR AND THROUGHOUT THE RIVER
PARISHES...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TIDAL LAKES.

THE COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED LATE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NO PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE...SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE BREAKING
DOWN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH EASTWARD...
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE WITH A SLOW RETURN
OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN
THE DIFFERENT MODELS...BUT THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TOT HE AREA...BUT WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEARING LINE HAS CLEARED PQL AND BVE. LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 500 TO
1000 FEET AROUND BTR AND MCB AND THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH 14Z. NORTH FLOW AT SURF AND 5KFT ABV GROUND WILL DISSOLVE
LOW CLOUDS. VFR CAVOK/CAVU EXPECTED AFTER 15Z THROUGH VALID TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EASES WINDS SHOULD RELAX
BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BRING WINDS
BACK UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  36  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  57  37  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  57  38  62  43 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  42  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  56  40  61  44 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  56  38  62  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...18
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





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