Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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564
FXUS64 KLIX 281033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BRINGING RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF STARTING TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS
IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP LOWER LAYERS
LIFTED SQUEEZING ANY MOISTURE OUT. AS AIR REPLACES THE JET AIR
FROM BENEATH...SOME MODERATE UPSLOPE OF THETA BOUDARIES WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY OVER THE GULF
INTO TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE COULD SNEAK ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE LA.

.LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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