Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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676
FXUS64 KLIX 261723
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW...BUT THREAT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY IN
FORECAST. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS NORTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
INCREASING TO 40 KTS AT 3000 FT. ALOFT A JET MAX OF 125 KTS IS AT
210 MB. THE COLUMN IS DRY WITH A BELOW AVERAGE PW OF .38 INCHES.

AK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL EXTENDING SOUTH TO
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AND AN ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER UTAH. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS
SHOWED VALUES LESS THAN A HALF INCH WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. 18

DISCUSSION...

THE WORK WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY TODAY BUT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A THICKNESS
LEVELS AND TEMPS SHOULD NOT MODIFY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ERGO...EXPECTING SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY YIELD PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH
MORNING TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT EAST OF THE EAST COAST AND
ALLOW THE FLATTEN RIDGE TO TRACK EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUT HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO
NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. A STRONG WAVE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
WITH THE PASSAGE AND MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. GFS AND
EURO ARE SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY YIELD
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...MAINLY SUNDAY. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WAS
INDICATED. 18

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURGE OF
SOME LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE SOUTH FROM
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI INTO INTERIOR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...
HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BRING CIGS TO ANY OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE FADING BY SUNSET.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS ARE STILL QUITE STRONG OFFSHORE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE
UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE. MOVING TO THE TIDAL LAKES SHOWS A LESS TYPICAL
DRASTIC DROP WITH SPEEDS BARELY REACHING 15 KTS. SO HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO THE HAZARDS TO PULL LAKES MAUREPAS AND
PONTCHARTRAIN FROM THE EXERCISE CAUTION...BUT LEAVE THE SOUNDS IN
THERE UNTIL NOON. ALL OTHER OFFSHORE WATERS REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX MORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING WINDS DOWN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER ALL WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A NOREASTER DEVELOPS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ONCE
THAT FEATURE EJECTS...WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
BRING BACK EXERCISE CAUTION SPEEDS. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  41  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  58  42  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  57  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  45  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  56  43  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  56  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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