Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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061
FXUS64 KLIX 160314
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1014 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA STILL BEING MET IN THE OPEN COASTAL
WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISHING STEADILY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ABATES. WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY RATHER QUICKLY AND
ESTABLISH SOME BAROCLINIC TIGHTENING FOR MODERATE WIND LEVELS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO FLIGHT THIS EVENING BUT THE REPLACEMENT PART DID ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...HAS BEEN INSTALLED AND TESTED OUT OKAY. SOUNDINGS WILL
RESUME AT 12Z.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S. COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPS DOWN IN TO THE MID
30S OVER THE NORTH SHORE WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY FROM FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. THE LIGHT BREEZE
SHOULD HELP KEEP FROST FROM DEVELOPING.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON BOTH
THE DAYTIME AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS. 07/AM

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...WITH
THE GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
WENT WITH MORE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHTING
TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

EXPECT TO SEE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIG INTO THE PLAINS STATES DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ALSO TRANSIT
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG OMEGA IN RELATION TO THESE
SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER POPS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700
AND 850MB...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO A LACK
SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD
OF THE GULF SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING WILL BE PLACED WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
LOW.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A WEAK SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS...COMBINED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 32/PG

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. 07/AM

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW...OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT TO
SEE WINDS DROP BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE DURING THE
DAY...AND GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.
UNFORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. EASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL
FALL TO 3 FEET OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. 32/PG

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  64  44  69 /   0   0  10  20
BTR  37  65  47  71 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  37  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  44  62  53  70 /   0   0  10  20
GPT  40  64  53  69 /   0   0  10  20
PQL  36  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR






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