Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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476
FXUS64 KLIX 202005
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH RES MESO MODELS DID A GOOD JOB WITH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
COASTAL CONVECTION TODAY... EVEN A TAD BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
INDICATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS PRODUCING 3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND BECOME MORE
COASTAL OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UNCHARACTERISTIC ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z AGAIN TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SURFACE
AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS STILL BRING UPPER AND MID LEVEL DRIER AIR
TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUPPORTED BY WV IMAGES.


.LONG TERM...
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST SO DIGS THE
TROUGH IN THE EAST CONUS. OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. A WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN AND BRING
MORNING COASTAL CONVECTION AND AFTERNOON INLAND CONVECTION BACK TO
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. AS OF NOW... DRIER
AIR MOVES IN NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE AN UNUSUAL AMPLIFIED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 599 HIGH CENTERED OVER KLAS WHILE
A 564 LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TAKES HOLD. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE 90 MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION THAT HAD IMPACTED KNEW...KASD...AND KMSY HAS BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z. AFTER THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES AROUND 00Z...A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS RANGING FROM 2000-4000 FEET WILL LINGER OVER
ALL OF THE TERMINALS. LATE TONIGHT...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION COULD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AT KASD...KHDC...AND KMCB. THIS INVERSION COULD
DROP VISIBILITES TO AROUND 1 TO 2 MILES AND PUSH CEILINGS INTO IFR
RANGE OF 500 TO 800 FEET. ANY IMPACTS WILL TEND TO OCCUR AROUND
10-12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THIS INVERSION SHOULD CLEAR AROUND
14Z...WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY 18Z. 32

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KTS OR LESS HIGHER AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL BE
2 FOOT OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  89  71  89 /  20  20  10  20
BTR  73  91  73  91 /  30  20  10  20
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  40  30  20  30
MSY  76  90  77  90 /  40  40  20  30
GPT  77  92  77  92 /  40  40  20  30
PQL  71  89  71  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

KEG





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