Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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020
FXUS64 KLIX 221308
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
808 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS PW
VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT NEARS. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE PROFILE OF THE SOUNDING ONLY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...WHERE ANY RAIN DOES OCCUR. WINDS ARE
UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING...OUT OF THE WEST.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TEXAS HILLS.
SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH ALABAMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO JUST
EAST OF TEXAS HILLS. NAM AND GFS INITIALIZED THE 500MB
DISTURBANCE/VORT MAX OVER ARKANSAS.

SHORT TERM...
WRF3KM SHOWED THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HOLDING
TOGETHER AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FLORIDA
PARISHES THROUGH NOON...REMAINING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE OVER ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TO
GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ZONES THROUGH AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
AT THE SAME TIME. SHV INDICATED PW VALUE OF 1.35 INCHES IN THE
AXIS WHILE GFS WAS A TENTH HIGHER. GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE AXIS
MOVING EAST AND DECREASING TO 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. UNDOUBTEDLY SOME OR QUITE A FEW AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE
ANY RAINFALL...THEREFORE WILL INSERT 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES AND MISSISSIPPI COAST...AREAS
CLOSES TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY DECREASE BY 5 DEGREES AT THE MOST
THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH HALF ZONES/COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CREATE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
ERGO...SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM...
THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL NOT BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
SATURDAY BUT MAINTAIN BROAD RIDGE OVER EAST CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LARGE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST. IF THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS TRUE...VERY COLD CORE STORM WILL BRING STRONG
STORMS AND LOWER THICKNESS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH RECORD COLD
TEMPS FOR THE END OF APRIL.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OTHER
THAN A THIN CIRRUS DECK PASSING OVER AND A FEW LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING AS SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP. IF MVFR CIGS DO DEVELOP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATER MORNING TO POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN.

MEFFER

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND LENDING
TO LIGHT COASTAL WATER WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  57  81  57 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  61  83  62 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  79  59  81  58 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  78  64 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  77  62  79  58 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  77  59  79  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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