Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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788
FXUS64 KLIX 281732
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THROUGH
06Z...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS RUNNING AROUND 3500 TO 5000 FEET.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION AFTER 06Z. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS
RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM FULLY EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE. IF THIS OCCURS...THE FOG SEEN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL NOT DEVELOP AS FULLY. HOWEVER...IF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO DECREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME...THE INVERSION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FULLY DESCEND TO THE
SURFACE. IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE PUT IN TEMPO GROUP
WORDING WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND LIFR CEILINGS TO REFLECT
THE FOG RISK AT KHUM...KBTR...KHDC...AND KMCB WHERE THE INVERSION
IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKEST. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AFTER 15Z...ANY INVERSION WILL QUICKLY
LIFT AND CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK INTO MVFR AND VFR RANGE.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  77  53  73 /  20  30  10  10
BTR  62  80  57  75 /  10  30  10  10
ASD  62  82  55  75 /  10  30  10  10
MSY  66  82  61  74 /  10  30  10  10
GPT  65  80  56  75 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  60  80  52  75 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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