Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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521
FXUS64 KLIX 261807 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1207 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE HOURLY FORECAST VALUES...HOWEVER SATELLITE SHOWS
THINNING AND BREAKS THAT APPEAR TO BE ACCELERATING. CLOUD DEPTH
MAY STILL BE AT LEAST 300 FEET IN SOME AREAS...SO AREAS DOWNWIND
OF MARINE/LARGER WATER BODIES MAY BE SLOWER TO SEE THE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. HAVE INDICATED THIS SOMEWHAT IN THE UPDATED SKY COVER
FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
START OFF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
REGARDING THE HIGHS TODAY...AREAS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUN MAY RECOVER AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES FROM THE 11 AM VALUES...SO
HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH THE UPDATE THAT WAS JUST SENT...HOWEVER
THIS IS 3 TO 4 DEGREES LOWER THAN THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...

AN MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY BASED ON
LATEST OBS AND VIS SATELLITE. ONE THING SATELLITE DOES SHOW IS
CLOUD DECK BEGINNING TO BREAK UP WITH OVC BECOMING MORE SCT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SHORT PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP AREAWIDE WITH MVFR/IFR BACK IN PLACE.
MORE CLEARING EXPECTED TOMORROW.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

ISSUED A /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/ HEADLINE FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...AND
SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THESE WINDS BEFORE THAT BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ON ELEVATED PLATFORMS. PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
NEW GUIDANCE/PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DURING THE 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT
PERIOD TONIGHT...SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH CHANDELEUR SOUND AND BRETON SOUND FROM 9
PM TONIGHT TO 9 AM FRIDAY.

22/TD
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS A 15 F INVERSION FROM 020 TO 060 FT.
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY NEAR THE SFC THEN BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE THE
INVERSION. THE JET MAX IS 140 KTS AT 230 MB. PW IS BELOW AVERAGE
AT .4 INCHES. THE PROFILE IS ONLY SATURATED IN THE CLOUD LAYER AT
ABOUT 020 FT AND IS VERY DRY ABOVE.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND YESTERDAY`S WEATHER-MAKER WAS RAPIDLY
MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING WITH A WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE BUT RE-ENFORCING THE COLD AIR THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THE 1042MB HIGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA THEN
SHUNTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST
WITH A BLEND OF CONCENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PARISHES AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI ZONES TONIGHT. ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S HINDERED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE.

LONG TERM...
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOME RIDGED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE A PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL FAVOR
CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH. THE FIRST IMPULSE CO-INCIDES WITH A COLD FRONTAL ZONE
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A WARMER BUT WET DAY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALSO WILL LIKELY BE STORMY WITH
SOUTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WHILE NORTHERN BRANCH
BUCKLES WITH DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WERE STILL ATTEMPTING TO ABATE IN WAKE
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTH GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BRING
ANOTHER INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL PROMPT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCES LATER TODAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY THEN VEER TO MODERATE EASTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. VEERING CONTINUES TO ONSHORE ORIENTATION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE GULF NOT LIKELY UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  31  48  32 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  48  32  51  34 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  49  33  52  35 /   0  10   0  10
MSY  48  37  51  41 /   0  10   0  10
GPT  50  34  53  36 /   0  10   0  10
PQL  49  33  53  36 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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