Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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766
FXUS64 KLIX 252040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF FOG ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND MENTION IN THE ZONES. WILL HOLD OFF ON DENSE WORDING
THOUGH AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT COULD
MOVE IN EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE.

BROAD SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST/NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD START DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ARISES FROM
THE FACT THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECONDARY IMPULSE AND
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...IT COULD ROB THE FRONT OF MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE
AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS. THINK
THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS...BUT WILL KEEP QPF FORECAST
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE FOR MOST LAND
AREAS. TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BEING IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CUMULUS FIELD NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES VERY EVIDENT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON WHEN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT REACH THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY GENERAL IFR
CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 09Z...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY IN THE MVFR RANGE AS CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING
AT MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE GULF TOMORROW. PLANNING ON
CARRYING SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE 00Z FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 18
HOURS. WINDS WILL VEER THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
             FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  74  42  65 /  10  60  30   0
BTR  60  75  45  68 /  10  60  20   0
ASD  61  75  48  67 /  10  60  40   0
MSY  64  75  50  67 /  10  60  40  10
GPT  63  74  49  67 /  10  70  40  10
PQL  61  76  49  67 /  10  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM



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