Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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274
FXUS64 KLIX 252111
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOT OF VIRGA FALLING TODAY OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE CURRENT
LONG WAVE POLAR TROUGHING IS CAUSING A VERY INTENSE THERMAL
GRADIENT TO EXIST OVER THE EAST PAC...MEXICO...AND GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS IN TURN CAUSES THE WINDS IN THE POLAR JET TO INCREASE. ONE
CAN SEE THIS VERY WELL WHEN LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE
ON THEIR WAY NORTH...THE STRONG WINDS THEN CAUSE LAYER
LIFTING(CAUSING VIRGA) OVER LA. THE AREAS SEEING VIRGA CAN BE
PICKED OUT AT THE SFC BY HIGHER DEW PT TEMPS. IF THE VIRGA CAN
MOISTEN LAYERS DEEP ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REACH
THE SFC THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO NE MEXICO WILL MOVE
THROUGH ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SFC COLD FRONT LATE WED. A VERY
DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT ALLOW THIS SFC FRONT TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIP. IT MAY NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL START BY THE END OF THIS WEEK BRINGING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

THE ROSBY WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THIS SIMPLY MEANS THE COOL AND COLD AIR SURGES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHORT WARM PERIODS IN BETWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXTREMELY DRY...SO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS. PROTECTED WATER AREAS SHOULD SEE
WINDS ABATE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED CAUSING WINDS TO HEIGHTEN ONCE
AGAIN BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR WED NIGHT
AND THU MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  36  65  40  60 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  37  66  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  37  65  42  63 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  42  64  47  62 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  39  63  44  61 /  20   0   0   0
PQL  38  63  42  61 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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