Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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880
FXUS64 KLIX 230654
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT
ALSO A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A DEEP MARINE LAYER RESIDING OVER
THE AREA. 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 381 M2/S2 AND A
DEVELOPING 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ARE NOTED. HOWEVER...THE MARINE
LAYER EXTENDS UP TO NEARLY 4000 FEET AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN
VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES ARE
POSITIVE. THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF MODIFICATION TO
THE AIRMASS IN ORDER FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
AT MOST...THIS SOUNDING IS CONDUCIVE TO SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  53  64  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  76  53  64  39 /  90  10  10  10
ASD  76  55  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  57  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  57  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







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