Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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020
FXUS64 KLIX 300937
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
437 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A DRIER
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 80S TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHSHORE AND LOW 70S
SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS VIGOROUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY COULD STAY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY IT
LOOKS AS IF THE AREA COULD HAVE A SMALL INVERSION TO DEAL WITH AND
IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN CONVECTION WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING. NOW...IF THE SHORTWAVE IS STRONGER THEN THAT SHOULD HELP IN
OVERCOMING THAT INVERSION. ALSO WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT THE
SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTH AND FORECAST FRONTAL
PLACEMENTS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CURRENT
STALLED FRONT IN THE GULF. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PULL SAID
FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT THAT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DECREASE IN POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SREF...HI-
RES WRF...THE GFS ENSEMBLE..ECMWF ALL COME IN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AREA THURSDAY WHILE SHOWING A DECAYING AREA OF PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WITH ALL OF THIS
HAVE DECIDED TO BACK POPS DOWN ON THURSDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
NOW FOR FRIDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED. HAVE MAINTAINED THE POPS ON FRIDAY.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WILL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOME INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WILL HAVE
THE TENDENCY TO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A REGION OF CUT OFF
VORTICITY WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WEAK AREA OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
BOTH DAYS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OCCURRING FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN EFFECT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT KNEW WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
SHOULD EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 35

&&

.MARINE...
DRY AIR FLOWING OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN HAS TEMPORARILY ENHANCED
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE...BUT EXPECT THIS TO RELAX
IN NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT HOIST HEADLINES. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  64  87  68 /  10  10  30  40
BTR  89  66  91  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  89  65  90  68 /  10  10  20  30
MSY  88  73  90  74 /  10  10  10  30
GPT  89  68  90  71 /  10  10  10  30
PQL  87  64  89  67 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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