Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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965
FXUS64 KLIX 141724
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

.AVIATION...

ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND FL040-050 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THESE WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT KHUM. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT HAS SAGGED OFFSHORE ALLOWING MORE DRY AIR TO ENTER THE
REGION. THIS IS VIEWABLE IN THIS MORNING/S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
COMPARED TO TWO MORNINGS AGO...WE/RE ABOUT AN INCH LOWER IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES WITH THIS MORNING/S PW MEASURED AT
1.28 INCHES /THIS IS CLOSE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. THERE IS A WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE
LOWEST 1700 FEET WHICH IS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR. WITH
THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ANALYZED AT 0 J/KG.
WHILE THE WINDS HAVE VARIABLE DIRECTION FROM ABOUT 14500 TO 26500
FEET...THEY ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST ABOVE 1700 FEET. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY ARE GENERALLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BEING HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY BETWEEN 7500 TO 13000 FEET.

12Z LAUNCH INFO...NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE
BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND BURST
NEAR THE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN CAUSEWAY JUST SOUTH OF MANDEVILLE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1021MB HIGH OVER MINNESOTA WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTHWEST GULF AND 1013MB LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL GULF. DEWPOINTS
RANGED FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO THE MID
70S ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A COL
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OVER BAHAMAS
AND OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
PLOTS SHOWED A SWATH OF 2 INCHES FROM JACKSONVILLE TO CENTRAL GULF
TO SOUTHWEST GULF.

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
DISSOLVE ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL RETREAT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THE
WEEKEND ... WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. BY SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BUT 30
TO 40 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTHWARD...BUT MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL STALL
BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...ANOTHER QUIET DAY TAF WISE. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN
VFR STATUS THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY SOME CU ANTICIPATED AROUND 5-6K
FT. /CAB/

MARINE...IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT EVERYTHING IS QUITE
BENIGN MARINE WISE. AS MENTIONED IN PREV DISCUSSION THE COLD FRONT
IS STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST AND IT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TODAY. OVERALL WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10
KTS WITH WAVES/SEAS AT 2 FT OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW
NIGHTS WHERE WINDS MAY TOP OUT AT 12-13KTS IN THE WATERS EAST OF THE
MS DELTA. SEAS MAY APPROACH 3 FT TOO. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  65  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  92  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  68  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  75  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  91  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  91  69  91  71 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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