Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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869
FXUS64 KLIX 161304
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
804 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

IT/S NOT SURPRISING THIS MORNING TO SEE THE LOW LEVELS COOLER AND
DRIER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
TEMPERATURE IS GENERALLY 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME BELOW 700MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL NEAR AVERAGE
FOR JULY...BUT DRIER AIR IS STILL MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY
LOWER WITH CAPE UNDER 1000 J/K AND A LIFTED INDEX VALUE OF ABOUT
-2.0. WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE AND THEN SHIFT TO
MAINLY FROM THE WEST ABOVE 600MB. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 54 KNOTS
WAS NEAR 45600 FEET. AS FOR STATS ON THIS MORNING/S SUCCESSFUL
BALLOON LAUNCH...IT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 107287 FEET AND BURST
SOUTHEAST OF SLIDELL.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

OUR HIGHLY ANTICIPATED FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA
AND BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
NEAR/ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AS WIND SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED AT
BOGALUSA...HAMMOND...BATON ROUGE AND EVEN ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST AND AT NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL.

TODAY SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE MID-JULY DAY IN LOUISIANA...
ABOUT AS NICE AS THEY COME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT THE REAL
DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN THE HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S PRODUCING RH VALUES IN THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE.

BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS ARE NOW SHOWING NO MOVEMENT BACK NORTH
OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE/DISTURBANCE
COMING IN FROM THE WEST...SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED AS WELL. WITH THIS
IN MIND HAVE LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY AND LEFT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH CONTINUED LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES. IF THE CURRENT THINKING HOLDS...WE SHOULD HAVE
TWO DAYS OF LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AT LEAST SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HUMIDITY AT LEAST COURTESY OF THIS FRONT.

LONG TERM...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE COMING IN FROM THE WEST DOES
EVENTUALLY DO SO ON FRIDAY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACCORDINGLY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE VALUES QUICKLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WHERE THEY ONCE AGAIN ARE IN
THE 2.2-2.3 INCH RANGE PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. WITH THE RETURN OF
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF CAPE...FRIDAY WILL BE
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WIDESPREAD RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO RUN
IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.

AVIATION...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. STILL A FEW SHRA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THAT WAS OVER LAKE BORGNE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCSH
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT NO
THUNDER. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT WIDESPREAD AND NOT MENTIONED IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONCE DRIER
AIR MOVES IN BY MID-MORNING...AROUND 15Z...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES...UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY JUST BELOW CRITERIA BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITES THAT
HAVE REPORTED CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SEE NO
REASON TO REMOVE THE WORDING FOR NOW AS WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA. BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AGAIN AND SEAS SHOULD
RETURN TO ONE FOOT OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART BY TONIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  60  89  67 /  10   0  10  30
BTR  88  63  90  72 /  10   0  10  30
ASD  89  66  89  73 /  20   0  10  20
MSY  88  70  90  75 /  20   0  10  20
GPT  89  67  88  73 /  20   0  10  20
PQL  89  65  89  68 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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