Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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737
FXUS64 KLIX 140938
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
438 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS PRECEDED THIS TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS.

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TODAY...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SWING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS WILL END EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN THIS WILL BE A DRY FORECAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER PLEASANT...ALBEIT A BIT COOL THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MID TO UPPER 70S THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY...THEN LOWER TO MID 80S
HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL STAY AROUND
LONGER THAN THE LAST COUPLE COLD FRONTS...SO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY RISE BACK TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...

A LINGERING STRATUS DECK RANGING AROUND 2500 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO KMCB...KNEW...KASD...AND KGPT THROUGH
AROUND 12Z.  AFTER SUNRISE...A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE AND RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS.  THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT KNEW AND KMSY THROUGH AROUND
00Z AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVER
THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. 32

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW AND RESULTANT ROUGH SEAS OF 4 TO
7 FEET WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  THE GRADIENT FLOW
WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE TIDAL LAKES
AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS AS WELL AS THE OPEN GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND EXPECT ANY
LINGERING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO END BY TOMORROW MORNING.  AS
THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK...WINDS WILL FALL TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA AND
SEAS WILL FALL TO 1 TO 2 FEET ON AVERAGE. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  46  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  76  49  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  76  46  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  57  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  50  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  77  48  77  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$





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