Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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985
FXUS64 KLIX 261014
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND YESTERDAY`S WEATHER-MAKER WAS RAPIDLY
MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING WITH A WAKE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE BUT RE-ENFORCING THE COLD AIR THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THE 1042MB HIGH SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA THEN
SHUNTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST
WITH A BLEND OF CONCENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PARISHES AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI ZONES TONIGHT. ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S HINDERED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOME RIDGED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE A PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL FAVOR
CONVECTION IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH. THE FIRST IMPULSE CO-INCIDES WITH A COLD FRONTAL ZONE
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE A WARMER BUT WET DAY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALSO WILL LIKELY BE STORMY WITH
SOUTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WHILE NORTHERN BRANCH
BUCKLES WITH DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN MVFR TO IFR STRATUS DECK IS STILL OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS DECK STRETCHES BACK ALL THE WAY TO EAST TEXAS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN LATER ON THIS MORNING AND ALONG WITH
SOME SUN THE DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WERE STILL ATTEMPTING TO ABATE IN WAKE OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO
THE NORTH GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BRING ANOTHER
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ISSUANCES LATER TODAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS BECOME
NORTHEAST FRIDAY THEN VEER TO MODERATE EASTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. VEERING CONTINUES TO ONSHORE ORIENTATION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE GULF NOT LIKELY UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY.  24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  31  48  32 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  52  32  51  34 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  52  33  52  35 /   0  10   0  10
MSY  51  37  51  41 /   0  10   0  10
GPT  52  34  53  36 /   0  10   0  10
PQL  52  33  53  36 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






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