Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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295
FXUS64 KLIX 160552
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND LAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. ONLY HAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE A PERIOD OR
TWO OF TEMPO TSRA WITH LATER TAF UPDATES. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN TOMORROW AND THEN
FRONT COMING THROUGH MON. TODAY WAS QUIET WITH A QUICK WARM UP THIS
MORNING AND OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL CHANGE TOMORROW.

STILL RATHER DRY ACROSS THE AREA AND ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN TEMPS
WILL DROP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BUILD IN AFTER MIDNIGHT
LEADING TO TEMPS EITHER SLOWING OR POSSIBLY EVEN BOUNCING UP AND
DOWN.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW MODERATE SRLY FLOW IN THE LL WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE MOISTURE. STRONG S/W DROPPING
THROUGH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
SUN AFTN AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY MON. AT THE SFC
A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE TX/LA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN LA AND
INTO CNTRL AL BY EARLY MON MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO AL THE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD ALREADY
BE ENTERING THE GULF BY MIDDAY.

NOW AS FOR RAIN...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW PWS WILL BE ABV 1.75" (WHICH IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE) AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S. THIS IS VERY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING BROAD LIFT ALOFT AND THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT. ONE OTHER KEY FACTOR IS WE COULD ALSO
HAVE THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET ENHANCING THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION. SECOND FACTOR LEADING
TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SCT EMBEDDED TSRA ENHANCING THE RAIN PRODUCTION. WITH
THAT THERE COULD BE WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISLTD
AREAS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 4 INCHES. AGAIN THANKS TO THE RECENT DRY
SPELL AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS RAIN OCCURRING OVER AT LEAST A 6 HRS
TIME FRAME SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TO A MINIMUM.

HEADING INTO MON RAIN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH. CAA WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE
HEELS OF THE FRONT WITH H925 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY EARLY AFTN.
CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN WITH HIGHS LIKELY OCCURRING
EITHER LATE IN THE MORNING AND AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT MON NIGHT. /CAB/

LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS HAVE DIVERGED A TAD ON THE FCST
TUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST. THE ECMWF IS VERY VERY PROGRESSIVE
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ONTO THE COLD AIR FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY. WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS AT THIS TIME.

TUE AND WED WILL BE COLD AND IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE COLDER
THAN THIS PAST THU AND FRI. ARCTIC AIRMASS LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION RATHER QUICKLY MON NIGHT. VERY STRONG CAA WILL TAKE PLACE AND
IT LOOKS STRONGER THAN THIS PAST SYSTEM. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO PLUMMET
AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY TUE. MON WILL BE A
COLD DAY AND WITH HIGHS LIKELY EARLY AFTN OR EVEN AROUND MIDDAY. CAA
ALREADY UNDER WAY MON AFTN SHOULD JUST LEAD TO TEMPS CONTINUOUSLY
DROPPING THROUGH THE LATE EVNG AND OVERNIGHT. GUI IS RATHER COLD TUE
MORNING SHOWING POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT
WILL HOLD OFF GOING QUITE SO LOW. MDLS REALLY STRUGGLED THIS LAST
EVENT GOING WAY TOO COLD WITH RESPECT TO WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURRED. YES
CAA WILL BE STRONG BUT WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT
MON THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH MIXING TO REALIZE THESE LOW TEMPS.
HIGHS ON TUE WILL ONLY GET INTO THE 40S AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A OPTIMAL RAD COOLING NIGHT TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY
DEWPOINTS WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK AFTER SUNSET. NOW
THERE IS AN ISSUE MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. LL TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE WARMING TUE NIGHT AND THIS DOES IMPACT COOLING
OVERNIGHT. IT LIKELY HELPED KEEP THE REGION FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE LAST NIGHT AND COULD EASILY SEE THAT OCCURRING AGAIN TUE
NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUI VALUES CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD NIGHT WITH A FEW
MEMBERS TRYING TO INDICATE TEENS BUT JUST NOT SEEING THAT RIGHT
NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR WE ARE AT AND THE LACK
OF AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW PACK TO OUR NORTH.

WED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPS WILL MODERATE AND MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN. WE SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THU BUT FRI
LIGHT SHRA MAY BEGIN TO RETURN BUT OVERALL WE LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
QUIET WITH TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL AFTER THU. /CAB/

MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TONIGHT WITH SCS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THE BIGGER
FCST IMPLICATIONS COME MON AND THROUGH TUE. COLD FRONT WILL SWIFTLY
SWEEP INTO THE GULF MIDDAY MON AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO
THE NW AND RAMP UP. AT THE VERY LEAST ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
GALE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH NUMEROUS WIND GUSTS NEAR AND
POSSIBLY ABV 40KTS. /CAB/

AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE AND TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND LAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. ALL TAF SITES WILL DROP TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  44  47 /  20  90 100  20
BTR  47  71  44  51 /  10  90 100  20
ASD  45  71  48  50 /  10  60 100  40
MSY  53  72  50  51 /  10  60 100  40
GPT  47  69  50  55 /  10  40 100  50
PQL  41  70  50  57 /  10  30 100  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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