Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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968
FXUS64 KLIX 212042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO WEST TEXAS. COLD FRONT NEAR A MCCOMB TO
NEW ROADS LINE AT 3 PM. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE AREA HAD A
LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN ANTICIPATED EARLIER...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE
SEA BREEZE HAS COOLED THINGS OFF INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...PULLING IT BACK
TO THE NORTH AND WEST BRIEFLY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG
STORM OR TWO...BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO REAL INDICATION OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALL DAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH...SO
ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AT
THIS TIME. POPS RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL NORTH TO HIGH CHANCE SOUTH
TONIGHT...AND CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. WILL HOLD ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OUT THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY
TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER READINGS. AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
BUST IN TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT TOMORROW
MORNING. MAY TAKE A GOOD BIT OF THE DAY ON MONDAY TO LOSE CLOUD
COVER...SO WE MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S IN SOME AREAS MONDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS A LITTLE MORE AGREEABLE ON MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS WITH BOTH DEPICTING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF DEPICTS RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS KEEPS A MOSTLY DRY
PASSAGE. WILL CARRY LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGED A BIT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR KMCB TO
JUST SOUTH OF KHZR. THE LOWER CIGS AND BULK OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHRA DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
AS IT CONTINUES TO SAG A BIT SOUTH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND
THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MORE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SHRA AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS...AND HAVE INCLUDED THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS AS PREVAILING. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
MAINTAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER THE NORTH GULF.
WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AT MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING TO LIGHTER LEVELS WHILE VEERING MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW THEN PREVAILS UNTIL A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  75  55  70 /  90  80  20  10
BTR  65  79  57  73 /  70  80  20  10
ASD  66  79  60  72 /  70  80  20  10
MSY  67  80  60  72 /  60  80  20  10
GPT  66  77  61  71 /  60  80  20  10
PQL  66  77  61  71 /  60  80  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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