Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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966
FXUS64 KLIX 182050
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1017MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS WERE NOTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WERE LOCATED NORTH OF THE FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE SCT CU FIELD MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
AXIS FROM HUDSON TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS ON A PLANER VIEW
REVEALED A SWATH OF 1 INCH FROM JACKSON TO DALLAS AT 12Z...AROUND
0.8 INCH ALONG THE GULF COAST. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT FALL LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WITH
TROUGH AXIS LINGERING BACK TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TODAY
FRONT AND TUESDAY FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE SECOND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL
DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF ANY KIND OVER THE
GULF WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE COAST AND DISPLACE MOISTURE EAST TO
FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THAT WILL BE ONLY A SMALL CHANCE PRIMARILY IN THE
OUTER WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 60S. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PRESSES
SOUTHWARD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES BUT VFR WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE SUNDAY MORNING.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK WINDS IN MARINE AREAS...
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE FOR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE THE COLD
ADVECTION ABATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL SOLUTIONS MIDWEEK ONWARD ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AROUND YUCATAN PENINSULA WOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE MOSTLY EASTWARD TOWARDS CUBA. HAVE KEPT A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
THE WIND FORECAST. THIS WILL MEAN A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK...POSSIBLY AS
STRONG AS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW SWELL TO ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...TIDAL RANGES ARE FORECAST TO BE SMALL
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  49  81 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  57  80  53  82 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  56  79  50  81 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  62  79  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  57  79  53  80 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  54  78  49  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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