Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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832
FXUS64 KLIX 092030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH IN
THE NORTH GULF...HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
TO JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THESE
HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF BREEZE WITH ATTENDENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES STIFLING THE INFLOW RATHER QUICKLY. A SIMILAR SITUATION
SEEMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LITTLE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING STRONG CANADIAN
FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT LOSING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM HARD SHUNT OF TROUGH TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE DENSITY OF THE COOLER AIR SHOULD SERVE TO GET THE
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT NOT THROUGH IT BEFORE STALLING
AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FRONTAL FORCING ON
THE GULF BREEZE FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS OF 50 PERCENT PRE-FRONTAL
FRIDAY...THEN GO 40 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR BETTER FOCUS
CONSIDERATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD THOUGH NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE A RELATIVELY
COOLER MORNING OR TWO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24-30 HOURS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. GUST POTENTIAL REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 KT...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
FRONTAL ZONE TO STALL ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE COAST WITH LITTLE
BEARING ON MARINE IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND...ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  90  73  90 /  10  20  10  30
BTR  73  91  73  90 /  10  20  10  30
ASD  73  89  74  90 /  10  20  10  30
MSY  77  90  77  90 /  10  20  10  30
GPT  75  89  76  89 /  10  20  10  30
PQL  72  89  72  89 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






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