Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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881
FXUS64 KLIX 210817
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
317 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE REGION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
AND AS A RESULT LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOTED
EARLY THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS WHERE BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EVEN LOWER ON TUESDAY WITH
AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BEING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
AXIS OF A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH
INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE FORECAST. THE MODELS EVEN DEPICT
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE THE EASTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE STALLING OUT.
THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL NOT STAY FAR FROM
NORMAL VALUES. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT
A FEW OF THE TERMINALS. LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION THIS MORNING LGT ISLTD SHRA COULD IMPACT
A FEW TERMINALS AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE ALL TERMINALS SHOULD MOVE
INTO VFR STATUS AND REMAIN THERE UNLESS CONVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OF LESSER COVERAGE THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH MORE CELLULAR AND SHORTER DURATION IMPACTS MAINLY FOCUSED ON
LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z-24Z. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ON THE QUIET SIDE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION WHILE SEAS SHOULD
MAINLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  73  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  90  73  91  74 /  30  10  20  20
MSY  90  77  91  76 /  30  10  20  20
GPT  90  75  90  75 /  40  10  30  20
PQL  90  71  90  73 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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