Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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506
FXUS64 KLIX 132122
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE FREEZE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES ON SUNDAY. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER AND ANOTHER MODERATING TREND WILL UNFOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO
SEE CONTINUED CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT KMSY AND KNEW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.  OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. 32

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES IT SELF OVER THE AREA
AND THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW RELAXES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             FREEZE WARNING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  25  47  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  27  49  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  28  50  31  59 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  34  49  39  59 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  30  51  33  59 /  10   0  10   0
PQL  28  51  29  59 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
     ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







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