Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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101
FXUS64 KLIX 151756
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MVFR CATEGORY CIGS...MAINLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KPTN-KHDC-KMCB THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND FOR THE
REMAINING AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR. SCATTERED SHRA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF
NUMEROUS AIRPORTS...AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IMPACTS FROM PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE BRIEF
WITH ANY LOWER VSBY CONDITIONS...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY. CLOUD
COVER HAS ALREADY BEGUN INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. RADAR HAS JUST BEGUN TO SHOW A FEW ECHOS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TOWARDS BATON
ROUGE. NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED THAT ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND AT
THIS POINT BUT SHOULDN/T TAKE TOO LONG BEFORE IT DOES SO. REGIONAL
RADARS DO SHOW MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
FROM THERE TODAY...MOVING INTO THE CWA IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES MID
MORNING MONDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE EAST BUT NOT AT AN OVERLY FAST PACE...POSSIBLY ONLY
REACHING TO A SLIDELL TO HOUMA LINE. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BE RACING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN DUE
EAST WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SLOWER MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH TO THE COAST
MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. LITTLE IF ANY
THUNDER EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A MINIMUM
AND ANY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WAS
RELUCTANT TO HAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP ISOLATED TS AS THERE/S A NON-ZERO CHANCE. CLEARING
WILL BE TAKING PLACE EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY BUT THIS
WILL ONLY BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL TAKE PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. THIS WILL
BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO NEAR 60 GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES. THIS COOLING WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN.
MODELS STILL SHOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SHOULD BE
LATE IN THE WEEK TO THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
BOTH SHOW IMPACTS THEN...THERE/S INCONSISTENCY ON ITS POTENCY. THE
GFS/S MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD BE MORE OF A
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WHILE THE ECMWF/S SOUTHERN
TRACK WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE
AREA.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
MULTIPLE ISSUES WILL IMPACT TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. FOG
AND EVEN SOME LOW CIGS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SITES
EAST OF I-55 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CONDITIONS. BY 13Z CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH VFR
STATUS BY NO LATER 16Z. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR THE
MOST PART UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z WHEN LGT SHRA MAY START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST. BY 6Z SCT SHRA WILL BE IMPACTING NUMEROUS TERMINALS
ACROSS THE REGION /CAB/

MARINE...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY PICK UP TO AROUND 10-15 KTS
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS PULLED OFF TO
THE NE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
WEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN WINDS SO NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED. THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BUT A SFC LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH SCY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  49  62  38 /  50  50   0   0
BTR  76  52  64  39 /  50  50  10   0
ASD  74  54  66  38 /  50  50  10   0
MSY  74  56  66  45 /  50  50  10   0
GPT  68  56  66  41 /  40  40  10   0
PQL  68  53  69  37 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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