Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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178
FXUS64 KLIX 210113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
813 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
ON THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING THE TEMPERATURE FOLLOWS THE DRY
ADIABAT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 020 FT. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THIS LAYER THEN WESTERLY ABOVE. PEAK WIND IS 80
KTS AT 225 MB. THE PROFILE INDICATES A LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH 650
J/KG MU CAPE. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.48 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG INTERSTATE 20...AND MOVING VERY
LITTLE. UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND HAS NOT
REALLY BEGUN TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DETECTED
ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AT MID
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...

BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED PER GFS AND
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS. STILL ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN VERY HIGH AND
WIND FIELD WILL STILL BE RATHER LIGHT. OVERNIGHT BAJA UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ON SATURDAY...AND SEEMS TO BE GETTING SLOWER
EACH RUN. MAY GET THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING WITHOUT A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WILL STILL BE CARRYING HIGH POPS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT DEFINITELY DO NOT EXPECT ALL DAY/NIGHT RAINS.
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND WILL ONLY CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER EACH PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PER ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE
WARMER SOLUTIONS. 35

LONG TERM...

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH GFS BEING ABOUT A DAY SLOWER
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING
FOR NOW...BUT ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES IN ONE OR TWO
FORECAST PERIODS AS TIMING OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE DEFINITE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANTICIPATE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA. 35

AVIATION...

TAF AIRPORTS IMPROVED TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. RADIATION FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT STARTING
IN THE 05Z-09Z PERIOD AND CONTINUING THROUGH 14-16Z ON SATURDAY. ANY
SHRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THEN SHRA AND SOME TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...SO MENTION OF AT LEAST TEMPO LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. 22/TD

MARINE...

THE RECENT PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY FLAT SEAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE LEANED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY AND AROUND 15 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 2 TO 3
FEET. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
RISE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR EVEN A BIT STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  62  74  62 /  40  20  80  80
BTR  82  64  78  65 /  40  20  70  70
ASD  82  64  77  65 /  20  20  50  60
MSY  80  65  78  66 /  40  20  50  40
GPT  81  64  75  65 /  20  20  50  50
PQL  80  64  77  64 /  20  20  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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