Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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516
FXUS64 KLIX 210833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN THE EVNG WITH CLOUDS
THINNING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT TEMPS COOLED
QUICKLY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY 7Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S.

FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. STRONG MID
LVL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING
CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BUT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO ISLTD AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
STORMS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AFTN HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY WARM UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND WE
COULD SEE NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY APPROACH
100 DEGREES IN SWRN MS. H925 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO 28 AND POSSIBLY
29C BY SUN AND THIS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC COULD PUSH TEMPS TWRDS
THE CENTURY MARK IN ISLTD LOCATIONS. AS FOR HEAT ISSUES...THE HEAT
INDEX DOESNT GET OUT OF HAND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. AFTN HEAT INDICES LOOK TO MAX OUT AROUND
106 DEGREES. COMBINE THAT WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10 AND IN THE UPPER
70S SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THE HEAT.
AGAIN THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE N.O. METRO WHERE LOWS COULD HOVER
AROUND 80 SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID
LVL PATTERN TO START THE WEEK BUT BY TUE NIGHT/WED THEY DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION MON AND INTO TUE BUT WITH THE CNTR OF THE
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH ON MON THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD GET INTO THE ERLYS WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING INTO THE REGION
LATE MON. THIS WOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE AND RETROGRADING IT
BACK TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE GFS ON THE HAND IS
DRIVING A STRONG S/W INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY WED. THE MAIN
PROTAGONIST IS STRONG PAC NW ENERGY DIVING SSE MON. THE ECMWF DRIVES
IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND BY TUE MORNING CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER NRN
CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS
DOESNT DIVE THE ENERGY AS FAR SOUTH AND INSTEAD BRINGS A STRONG
S/W INTO PLAINS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING PINCHED OVER
THE APPLACHIANS WHILE LOSING SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA. THE
ECMWF SOLN WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND RATHER LOW END
POPS...15-20%. THE GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS
CLOSER TO 30-40%. WITH THE MDLS REALLY STRUGGLING WE WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS FOR WED AND THU BUT SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR YOUR TROPICAL UPDATE...THE MDLS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE 7Z TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC IS STILL CALLING FOR A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT IT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND THE MDLS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS MAY STAY WELL EAST OF
THE AREA AND IN THE ATLANTIC. WITH NO SYSTEM HAVING EVEN DEVELOPED
YET THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ACCURATELY TELL WHERE
AN EVENUTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD GO...LETS AT LEAST SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS FIRST. AS ALWAYS ITS APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE
SEASON AN WITH OUR AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST WE SHOULD ALWAYS
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST IN THE TROPICS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE INTERACTIONS DOMINATE THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. NOCTURNAL WINDS ALONG COASTLINE SHOULD BE STRONGER
MEANWHILE...WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHERE THE SEABREEZE IS LESS DOMINANT. BY
EARLY WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND WILL INCREASE TO THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE EASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK WAVES
SHOULD CLIMB TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
BTR  95  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  94  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  93  78  94  78 /  20  10  20  10
GPT  94  77  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  94  75  95  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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