Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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175
FXUS64 KLIX 141020
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS A RATHER RAW DAY YESTERDAY AND THIS LED TO A
COLD BREEZY EVNG WITH WINDS SLOWLY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. AT 9Z TEMPS
CONTINUE TO FALL AND NUMEROUS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR
WERE ALREADY AT OR NEAR FREEZING. WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS EXPECTED BUT THIS HASNT HURT THAT MUCH. IN FACT THE BIGGER
ISSUE OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO
BOUNCE AROUND AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THAT SAID IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
WIDESPREAD LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH TEMPS EASILY 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TODAY BUT WITH H925 TEMPS BEGINNING THE
DAY AROUND -3C AND ONLY SLOWLY WARMING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABV THE MID 40S. LIKE YESTERDAY NUMEROUS SITES
WILL LIKELY SET NEW RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS TODAY. THE OTHER IMPACT OF
THESE LOW AFTN TEMPS IS IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS EXPERIENCING A FREEZE THIS
MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE SHOULD BE NO
MOISTURE RECOVERY TODAY OR TONIGHT. COMBINE THAT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE ALMOST
OPTIMAL. THE ONLY LITTLE HICCUP WITH RESPECT TO RAD COOLING IS THAT
LL TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING AS H925 TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM AND COULD APPROACH 2-4C BY SUNRISE. AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVNG
TEMPS SHOULD PLUNGE RATHER QUICKLY WITH QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING
FREEZING TEMPS MUCH EARLIER THIS EVNG THAN LAST NIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ONCE
AGAIN. AS FOR LOCATION OF THE COLDER TEMPS SAT MORNING IT SHOULD BE
ACROSS COASTAL MS AND PORTIONS OF SWRN MS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
PEARL RIVER AND PASCAGOULA RIVER DRAINAGE AREAS. A FEW MORNING LOWS
LOOK TO BREAK RECORDS.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE THINKING OF THE FCST FOR THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE AND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A STRONG S/W WILL DROP OUT OF
THE PAC NW AND ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NWRN GULF/COASTAL TX. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH
PWS ABV 1.5" SUN AFTN AND EVNG. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LIFT ALOFT...FORCING FROM THE SFC WAVE...AND POSSIBLY THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER JET LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT
(LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING). THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY B/T 3-4 INCHES.
LUCKILY IT HAS BEEN RATHER DRY AND THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD LIKELY
FALL OVER A GREATER THAN 6 HR PERIOD SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS WITH LITTLE PROBLEM. THE SFC WAVE AND MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST BY LATE MON MORNING LEADING TO RAIN COMING TO AN END BUT
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR W AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES  MORE AMPLIFIED. AS THIS OCCURS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE
MON. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE POTIONS OF THE WEEK BUT WE LOOK TO QUICKLY
MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS BACK AROUND NORMAL.

TUE AND WED WILL BE COLD AND COULD EVEN BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE ARE
DEALING WITH RIGHT NOW. L/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
ERN CONUS TUE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVING THROUGH TUE EVNG
AND DEEP NRLY/NWRLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP. THIS WILL DRIVE A
1030-1033 MB SFC HIGH WELL INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BECOMING CNTRD OVER
THE LA/MS/AL REGION WED MORNING. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
OPTIMAL RAD COOLING CONDITIONS. COMBINE THAT WITH HIGHS ON TUE
EXPECTED TO ONLY GET INTO THE MID 40S (AND THAT MAY BE TOUGH IN A
FEW AREAS) ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS (RAW MDLS TRYING TO
INDICATE SINGLE DIGITS) AND WE COULD SEE LOWS MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE THIS MORNING. GUI IS ADVERTISING LOWER TO MID 20S IN SOME
AREAS WED MORNING WHICH IS MORE THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
AGAIN THIS IS DAY 6 WHERE THE GUI TRIES TO GO BACK TWRDS CLIMO. ONE
THING THAT IS INTERESTING IS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUI HAS
LOW MEMBERS IN THE TEENS FOR NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AND SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

HEADING INTO THE BACK END OF THE WORK WEEK WE QUICKLY MODERATE AS
THE MID LVLS APPEAR TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. BY THU WE WILL BE UNDER
ZONAL FLOW WITH THE SFC HIGH CNTRD OVER THE PALMETTO STATE.  /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...SCY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT AFTER
SUNRISE WINDS SHOULD REALLY START TO SLACK OFF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS TAKING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO ERLY BY
TOMORROW AND THEN SERLY BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK SFC WAVE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TX COAST. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SUN BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINES FOR
THE MOST PART UNTIL LATE MON. AT THAT TIME AS THE SFC WAVE PULLS OFF
TO THE NE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND VERY STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION MON NIGHT AND THROUGH
TUE. SCY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND COULD BE BORDERLINE GALE
CONDITIONS AS WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 35-40 KTS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD CALM A BIT AFTER SUNSET AT MOST
TERMINALS. 95/DM

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  26  57  44 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  49  26  59  47 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  49  27  59  47 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  47  34  59  54 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  50  30  59  48 /   0  10   0  10
PQL  50  24  59  43 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
     ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG/MARINE: CAB
AVIATION: 95/DM




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