Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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169
FXUS64 KLIX 152027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR A
HATTIESBURG TO MORGAN CITY LINE. SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES NEARED
90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...20
PERCENT NORTHEAST TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT
OF TEXAS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT ABOVE WEDNESDAY
POPS FOR THURSDAY. NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT GET EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SHORT OF FORECAST
HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...A SKINNY UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
EACH DAY. MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER COLD
FRONT AT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN OUTFLOW DRIVEN
STORM MOVEMENT. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF A CELL
PASSES OVER A TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS FLUCTUATE RIGHT AROUND 3KFT.
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION IN THE TAFS WITH SOME TEMPO
GROUPS ANTICIPATING THE HIGHER PROB OF CONVECTION AT THOSE
TERMINALS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF HAS BEEN DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED SOMEWHAT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW/S CONTINUED WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS ALLOWING THIS
GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX AND THUS WINDS/SEAS ARE DECREASING AS
WELL. OUTER WATERS ARE NOW ONLY SEEING WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE 10KTS
AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW BUT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AND FORTH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MORE STEADY EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SPEEDS SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST THE 15 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WILL BRING SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET WITH THAT WIND SPEED
AND ABOUT A 200 MILE FETCH.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  69  90 /  30  50  20  20
BTR  73  90  71  91 /  30  70  20  30
ASD  74  90  71  90 /  30  70  30  20
MSY  77  90  75  89 /  30  70  30  30
GPT  75  89  72  90 /  30  70  30  20
PQL  73  90  69  90 /  30  70  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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