Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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896
FXUS64 KLIX 290126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
726 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PW
OF .51 INCHES. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LOW LEVELS
THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET MAX IS 100 KTS
AT 215 MB.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STILL MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY AS CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES AND MOVES EAST. A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THAT USHERS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD. THAT FRONT IS
ESSENTIALLY DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH BULK
OF COLD MOVING EAST.

LONG TERM...
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS FINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY IN THE LONG TERM. THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY TAPS INTO A PACIFIC TROPICAL CONNECTION
WHILE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. A NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH FIRST SWINGS DOWN FOR A SOFT FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY THAT
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY IN NORTH GULF MONDAY. THE ENERGY FROM THE
EJECTING SYSTEM THEN INDUCES A SURFACE GULF LOW OF SOME MAGNITUDE
TUESDAY THAT RIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEASTWARD HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
AND PLACES PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WARM SECTOR WHEREAS THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS THE LOW IN THE GULF WATERS AND LESS PENETRATION
INLAND OF THE RAIN SHIELD. THE LOCAL HOVMOLLER TECHNIQUE FAVORS
THE GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING AND LOCATION BUT WILL DEFER TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES AND JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS
BETTER AND WILL AWAIT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THEY COME IN
BETTER ALIGNMENT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30
HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
AROUND SUNRISE TO BRING HIGH END MVFR VSBY AT KMCB AND KHUM.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTH GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE FRIDAY THEN
SETTLE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE WEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEST
GULF THAT RIDES A FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BUT
UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT AT THIS TIME...BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY  WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  46  73  43 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  68  47  75  46 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  46  71  47 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  66  49  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  63  48  68  48 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  63  47  69  47 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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