Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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696
FXUS64 KLIX 220130
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
830 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATE...

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING/DISSIPATING THIS EVENING OVER LAND...BUT PERSISTING IN
COASTAL AREAS OF TERREBONNE PARISH TO OFFSHORE FROM GRAND ISLE AND
SOUTHWEST PASS. COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND GREATER INSTABILITY FROM
MOIST WARM AIR OVER WATER MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER HAVE REDUCED THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THE
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. 22/TD

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A SUCCESSFUL EVENING SOUNDING AS THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF
ALMOST 20.5 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND BURST SOUTH OF ELMWOOD.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT AS MEASURED BY THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON THIS EVENING/S SOUNDING
AT 1.40 INCHES. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN HAVE HELPED TO KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...THE LOWEST 50-75MB HAS SEEN AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OF 3-4 DEGREES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS SOME
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST TODAY.  RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST STARTING TOMORROW INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...AND UNDERNEATH THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN
GOING ON ALL DAY. THIS LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST AREA STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THEY MIGHT HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS IF
LOW BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE THE EASTERN U.S LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE STALLING OUT.
THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DEEPEN LATE
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  IN GENERAL...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD AT
AROUND 5000 FEET WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY DEVELOP AROUND
10Z TOMORROW MORNING.  THIS WEAK INVERSION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
AT KMCB AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH SOME LIGHT FOG AT THIS
STATION.  EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT WORST AT
KMCB.  ONCE THE INVERSION LIFTS AFTER 14Z...A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. 32

MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW.
OVERALL THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ON THE QUIET SIDE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION WHILE SEAS SHOULD MAINLY
BE 2 FT OR LESS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  89  70  90 /  10  20  20  40
BTR  72  91  72  91 /  20  20  20  40
ASD  72  90  72  90 /  20  30  20  40
MSY  75  90  74  90 /  20  30  30  40
GPT  76  90  76  89 /  20  30  30  40
PQL  71  89  71  90 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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