Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

854
FXUS64 KLIX 221035
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
435 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI...AND RIGHT AT THE CWA
BORDER OF LIX AND JAN. THE REAL STRONG PUSH BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
STILL WELL TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY/S
PROGRESSION TO BE FAIRLY GRADUAL TODAY WITH IT BARELY REACHING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN BY 00Z. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF RAIN EXTENDING
NORTH OF A BATON ROUGE TO FRANKLINTON LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE FADING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BY THEN...DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE WILL BE QUITE A LARGE GRADIENT IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOCATIONS IN NWRN ZONES WILL SEE HIGHS NOW...AND COOL DURING THE DAY
WHILE OTHERS SOUTHEAST OF BTR WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. TIMING
OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE CRITICAL ON OBSERVED MAX TEMPS. POST
FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL JUST BE A COLD
RAIN WITH PRECIP ALL LIQUID. COLD AIR PUSHING IN WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...
CHANCE POPS WILL BECOME LIKELY POPS FOR SOME AREAS ON MONDAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BETWEEN TROUGH TO THE
NORTH AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
THROUGH. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
LOWER 40S TO 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. AS WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER IN THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SUB FREEZING TEMPS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND TEMPS RIGHT AT FREEZING IN MCB. FURTHER SOUTH
AROUND BTR LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AT THE SFC AND ABOVE.
SO WILL KEEP ZR- IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA FROM POINTE COUPEE
PARISH TO WILKINSON COUNTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
0.10 INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY MID MORNING
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMING IN GENERAL DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG
WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RACE ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SWING OVER THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE CWA/S COAST BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WED. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
KICKS OUT WED NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL FINALLY SEE A DAY OR
MAYBE EVEN 2 OF DRYNESS. SHOWERS MAY RETURN THOUGH GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...

SOME SEA FOG IMPACTING KGPT OVERNIGHT AND SOME -RA OVER KBTR AND
KMCB.  MAIN IMPACT DURING THE NEXT TAF PERIOD WILL BE CEILINGS AND
RAIN CHANCES. RA OR EVEN A FEW SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW/N FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY.  STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR WINDS AND SEAS FOLLOWING THE FRONT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CALM DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MON NIGHT.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  38  41  31 /  70  50  60  60
BTR  70  41  44  33 /  60  50  60  60
ASD  73  44  49  37 /  50  40  50  50
MSY  72  47  49  39 /  50  30  50  50
GPT  70  45  50  37 /  50  40  50  50
PQL  72  44  50  38 /  50  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.