Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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435
FXUS64 KLIX 090829
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LITTLE OR NO INDICATION THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIST
OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE ONE COLD FRONT THAT IS VISIBLE ON
THE MAP EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF COAST. ON RADAR...THE USUAL EARLY MORNING PERCOLATION OF
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD REACH SHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM
MARINE INFLUENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE SHORT RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS A SOMEWHAT LESS MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WIND FIELDS BELOW 500 MB CONTINUE
TO BE VERY WEAK...WHICH WILL MEAN LITTLE OR NO STORM MOTION.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW AREAS. AS WE GET INTO
THURSDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REBOUND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RETURNING TO ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MOST
CONVECTION LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS WILL
STILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS AREAS
THAT DO NOT SEE CONVECTION PRIOR TO 18Z. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE
INTO THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE HOLDING IN STRONGER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. FRONT IS LIKELY
TO RUN OUT OF GAS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. WE MAY STILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE
FROM WHAT WILL BE IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST...MAINLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED COOLING DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO HAPPEN. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER DURING THE WEEKEND THAN IN THE SHORT
TERM...READINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID SEPTEMBER. IF THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO BE SEEN...IT
IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT HUM AND ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR
CIGS AND VIS TODAY WITH LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE. NOT PLANNING ON
HAVING VCTS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE
TO LOW. IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP OVER A TERMINAL...PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS COASTAL WATER FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH GULF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WELL AS SEAS GENERALLY 1 FOOT OR LESS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE NORTHEAST WITH A BACKING TO MORE DUE EAST WITH TIME.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  91  72  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  91  77  91  78 /  20  10  20  10
GPT  91  75  90  76 /  30  10  20  10
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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