Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
320
FXUS64 KLIX 201810
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
110 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW STRATUS AND FOG FINALLY DISSIPATING ON
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND AT KNEW AROUND 18Z. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO RAISE AND SCATTER OUT THE LOWER CLOUD
DECKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AIRPORTS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR. RADIATION FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT STARTING IN THE 05Z-09Z PERIOD AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 14-16Z ON SATURDAY. ANY SHRA DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT HAS LEFT US SOME FOG TO DEAL WITH
THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AND
ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY SHOULD UNFOLD ACROSS THE AREA. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL LINGERING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT RANGE HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS SHOULD FORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
REALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS THERE STILL IS SOME
POCKETS OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY MODEST RAIN CHANCES...ONLY 20 TO 40
PERCENT TODAY. FOG AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS THIS WARM MOIST AIR MASS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE.

GOING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE WET FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK
AS AN UPPER LOW KICKS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER SETUP BUT
THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND SATURDAY AND MORE SO
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA AND THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. THE MAIN THING
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY
DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD OCCUR A LITTLE
BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO SEE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SETS UP OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT THIS COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL FOR THE AREA.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND WE WILL DRY OUT TO A FAIRLY NICE FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OUR RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY
BEGIN TO RISE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LONG RANGE AND STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. 13/MH

AVIATION...
BIGGEST ISSUE WITH TAFS WILL BE VSBYS THIS MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM
VFR TO IFR WILL IMPACT MANY TERMINALS AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCT CU AROUND 3K FT
TODAY. /CAB/

MARINE...
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK FOR BENIGN CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH VARIABLE WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED AS
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAK STALLED BNDRY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE
COAST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD. THINGS
SHOULD FINALLY CHANGE LATE SUNDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND DRAGS THE FRONT SOUTH LEADING TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS SUN NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  63  74  61 /  40  40  80  90
BTR  82  63  78  64 /  40  40  80  80
ASD  82  63  77  64 /  30  30  60  70
MSY  80  64  78  65 /  40  20  60  60
GPT  81  63  75  64 /  30  30  60  60
PQL  80  63  77  63 /  20  30  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.