Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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417
FXUS64 KLIX 240534 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CLEARING LINE APPROACHING KBTR AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND 08Z
AND THE REMAINDER OF TAF LOCATIONS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. VFR
CAVOK/CAVU EXPECTED THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PUSHED
WELL TO THE EAST. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SYSTEM.
WE DO NOT EXPECT RAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER LOOKING OFF
TO THE WEST THERE STILL IS SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. SO WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT ALL RAIN TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT TOMORROW MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL WITH FULL SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
MOVE IN TOMORROW AND SHOULD BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND THIS WILL YIELD PRETTY QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 50S TOMORROW AND CLIMB
INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRAVERSE THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THAT SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY BACK DOWN IN THE 50S. THIS WAVE SHOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY DRY. NO
MENTION OF RAIN FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD FINDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL
HAVE SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS.

BY FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. TIMING DIFFERENCE THAT
WERE NOTED IN THE MORNING PACKAGE REMAIN WITH THE 23/12Z GFS AND
ECMWF. THE COMMON THEME IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN WINDOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...BUT IT STALLS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE FRONT HAS ENOUGH SUPPORT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GFS` MAIN PRECIPITATION WINDOW WOULD THEREFORE BE FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH THE DIVERGENT MODELS...HAVE
BLENDED POPS IN THE 20% RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LATE JANUARY NORMALS.

ANSORGE

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS LOW CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR TO MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA HOVERING B/T 800 AND 1500
THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z LOW CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY START TO MIX OUT.
ONLY OTHER REAL ISSUE WILL BE STRONG WINDS AT MSY AND NEW.
PERSISTENT GUSTS ABV 20KTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WINDS SHOULD FINALLY START TO SLACK OFF AFTER SUNRISE. /CAB/

MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL ELEVATE WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EASES WINDS
SHOULD RELAX BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
LIKELY BRING WINDS BACK UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADV

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  55  36  63 /  50  10   0   0
BTR  36  57  37  64 /  40  10   0   0
ASD  37  57  37  63 /  40  10   0   0
MSY  39  55  42  63 /  20  10   0   0
GPT  38  56  40  62 /  40  10   0   0
PQL  36  56  37  63 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









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