Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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596
FXUS64 KLIX 180825
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRAVERSE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHICH
WILL PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. A
MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 2 INCHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACTS ON THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH...AROUND 5 INCHES OVER A SIX HOUR
PERIOD...AND THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREAD OUT OVER THREE PERIODS...TODAY...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
CONVECTION. INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT HEATING. BUT MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NO
GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR
SO TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. 11

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION IS LOCATED IN A BREAK BETWEEN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES. THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST NEAR CLIMO LEVEL POPS DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR CONDITIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AS RAINFALL MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. TSRA/SHRA SHOULD
BECOME PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY
FOR KBTR AND KMCB. OVERALL EXPECT MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH


&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS
IN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS MEETING EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WEST OF THE RIVER IN THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
CREEP UP INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AND WITH THAT HAVE ISSUED
THAT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COASTAL WATERS ZONES. WINDS COULD PICK UP
AGAIN TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND TIGHTENS
THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  70  87  71 /  90  60  60  40
BTR  84  73  88  73 /  90  60  60  40
ASD  86  72  88  74 /  80  60  60  40
MSY  87  75  88  76 /  80  60  60  40
GPT  87  75  88  74 /  70  50  60  40
PQL  86  72  88  73 /  70  50  60  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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