Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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902
FXUS64 KLIX 161332
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
732 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MUCH DIFFERENT LOOKING SOUNDING THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW MEASURED FROM THE SFC TO 6800FT THEN SSW FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE ATMO. MOISTURE EVIDENT FROM THE SFC TO 10500FEET WITH A DRY
LATER ABOVE THROUGH 33KFT WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS
MEASURED. PW UP TO 1.12 INCHES WITH THIS SOUNDING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
NOT THERE YET...HOWEVER THIS SNAP SHOT OF THE ATMO WILL MODIFY THROUGH
THE DAY AND BECOME RIPE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER.


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM TEXAS COAST
TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND A LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLOTS ON A PLANER VIEW REVEALED A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH
VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST AT 00Z.
SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. MANY POINTS
HAVE SEEN THEIR MORNING LOWS AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE BEFORE
SUNSET. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER CONUS AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE
MINNESOTA TO THE GREAT BASIN. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB SHOWED A
JET MAX AROUND 140 KNOTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE...FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DARKENING OR VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
MAX OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA. REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS FROM NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO NORTH LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 60S AND POOL ALONG TO THE TROUGH AXIS TODAY AND
PLACING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS 500 TO
200MB OVER FORECAST AREA. VEERING WINDS WINDS TODAY SHOW INCREASE
OF LL HELICITY VALUES 300 TO 500 M/S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
FORECAST AREA...ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...MEANINGFUL CAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 100 TO 700J/KG ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...PW VALUES WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH WITH VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOW MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM
PRODUCING PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MANY AREAS ARE EXTREMELY DRY AND SHOULD
HANDLE THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO PUSH THE MOISTURE THROUGH BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE SECOND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE UP NORTH WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY AND SCOUR OUR THE REMAINING MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS DIVE AGAIN AND
POSSIBLY PUSH PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO A HARD FREEZE
TUESDAY AND SOUTH SHORE TO A NEAR FREEZE. SOME MODERATION WILL
OCCUR BY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY LAG TIL SATURDAY SO
WILL THUNDER UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SET IN DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS
LOW...AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TAKING EFFECT
TONIGHT. A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH ON MONDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE. FREQUENT STRONGER GUSTS MAY STILL NECESSITATE A GALE WATCH OR
WARNING OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS
             AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  42  49  23 /  90 100  20   0
BTR  75  42  50  24 /  90 100  20   0
ASD  72  48  53  27 /  60 100  30  10
MSY  73  48  51  32 /  60 100  30  10
GPT  71  51  54  28 /  40  90  30  10
PQL  71  54  56  27 /  30  90  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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