Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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431
FXUS64 KLIX 102110
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
410 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HAS PROVIDED A BEAUTIFUL SPRING
DAY OVER OUR AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAYS FOR
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM SO EACH DAY WILL HAVE A LITTLE
BREEZE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE ONLY THING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IN THE SHORT
TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF AND THE NIGHTLY INVERSION COULD
PRODUCE SOME FOG EACH MORNING UNTIL THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
NOW BUSINESS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A FEW SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE MAIN SHOW FOR
US WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SOME STRONGER SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL SWING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A RISK
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS AN AREA JUST OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT AREA WILL EXPAND OR
WILL THEY HIGHLIGHT OUR AREA FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. RIGHT NOW THE PROBABILITY IS LOW BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THAT AS WE COULD BE OUTLOOKED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AT KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND
STORMS FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HINTED AT THE ECMWF
BEING SLOWER THAN THE GFS...WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS HAS COME
AROUND TO THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD KEEP POPS ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO REFLECT
THIS. AFTER THE FRONT COOLER TEMPS BRIEFLY MOVE IN BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG NEAR DAYBREAK.


&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL AND GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WIND WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 5
FEET. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS WILL
TRANSPORT DOWN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  78  58  80 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  53  79  60  82 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  54  78  60  80 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  59  75  62  80 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  55  77  60  78 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  53  77  58  77 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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