Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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464
FXUS64 KLIX 202036
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...

SEABREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BATON ROUGE
METRO AND RIVER PARISHES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WANES THE CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.

HEADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...A STRONG 595 H5 RIDGE
WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GULF SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND BRING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S. FORTUNATELY...THERE WILL
BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP HEAT INDICES SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED GIVEN THE COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
ALSO KEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES DOWN NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. ALONG AND BELOW THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THE PROSPECT
OF SEABREEZE INDUCED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. HAVE KEPT IN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE EURO AND GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FROM A 594 H5 RIDGE ON
SATURDAY TO A 590 H5 RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE GULF SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SLIDE DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT WILL
TAKE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION EVERY DAY. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS IN
THE LOWER 90S. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND
OVERALL HUMIDITY THE HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT A FEW
OF THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE
MOST LIKELY PLACES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS
SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE INTERACTIONS DOMINATE THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL TEND TO MAXIMIZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
A WEAK MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL BE
CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHERE THE
SEABREEZE IS LESS DOMINANT. HEADING INTO EARLY WEEK...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
AND INCREASED IN SPEED...WAVES WILL RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  76  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  77  94  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  77  94  77  94 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  77  95  77  96 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  76  95  75  96 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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