Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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610
FXUS64 KLIX 171000
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
500 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST WITH THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED/MOVED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS COMPARED TO
24 HOUR AGO. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...
AND MOIST SURFACE INVERSION ARE CAUSING PATCHY FOG TO FORM ACROSS
AREAS MAINLY FROM SOUTH OF METRO NEW ORLEANS TO AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF BATON ROUGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THE ORIENTATION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. AFTER A COOL START WITH PATCHY
FOG...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING 82 TO 84
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING INLAND FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES DUE TO THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. THIS
SHOULD BE OUR WARMEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE NO CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SEND THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE MORNING THAT WILL
START TO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE
TIDAL LAKES.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY
THAT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE WILL SETTLE
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAYS COLD FRONT. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR A
RATHER PLEASANT SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...AND LOWER HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY.
THIS CARVE OUT A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LINGER OFFSHORE IN THE NORTH GULF
COASTAL WATERS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...BUT LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES AND ATLANTIC COAST REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO KEEP REINFORCING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GULF COAST REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...IN FACT THE AIRMASS MAY ACTUALLY DRY OUT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
REINFORCING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. HAVE GONE MORE IN
FAVOR OF THE COOLER ECMWF LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR ZERO
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...SO THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A
RATHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF MOSTLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PREDOMINANT AT KHUM FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12 OR 13Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO
VFR. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL OTHER
SITES AROUND SUNRISE...QUICKLY RETURNING TO VFR BY 14Z OR SO. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...WITH A REPEAT OF THIS MORNINGS CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SATURDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH WINDS IN MARINE AREAS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL NOCTURNAL INCREASE OVER OUR EASTERN
WATERS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BEFORE THE COLD ADVECTION ABATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS BEYOND
MONDAY AS ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH AS THE GFS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THIS
WOULD BRING PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD ALSO ALLOW SWELL TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE TIDAL RANGES. MOST OF
THESE EFFECTS WOULD OCCUR BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST RANGE...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  58  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  84  61  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  83  57  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  84  64  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  82  61  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  83  56  84  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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