981
FXUS64 KLIX 142014
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
314 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SOUTH OF
PENSACOLA. THIS IS PRODUCING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH IS
TEMPERING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
INLAND...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S...WITH MID
TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THEN
EASTWARD AND PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOUNDING TO BE UNCAPPED...WITH
GFS SHOWING A WEAK CAP. WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW POPS CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST BUT WILL NOTE THAT GFS MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN NORMAL THE FOLLOWING 2 NIGHTS.
MOS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ACCEPTED WITH VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING TAKES
OVER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ECMWF ABOUT 18-24 HOURS SLOWER ON SYSTEM PASSAGE. GFS
SOLUTION WOULD FIT WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...AT LEAST WITH
RESPECT TO SYSTEM TIMING. WHERE IT IS A LITTLE OUT OF STEP WITH
THE FORECAST IS THAT WE ARE CARRYING PRECIPITATION FOR
TUESDAY...AND QPF FROM THE GFS WOULD LIKELY HAVE OUR AREA DRY
DURING THE ENTIRE 6-10 DAY PERIOD...AS THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. WILL NOT MAKE THE CHANGE
NOW...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH WINDS LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY
CALM OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
MAINTAIN EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OR WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REGIME
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT RELATIVELY
LOW LEVELS AT 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. NO COLD FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

24/RR/MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  82  59  83 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  60  83  62  85 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  57  81  61  82 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  64  82  65  83 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  60  81  64  81 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  56  83  60  82 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$