Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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503
FXUS64 KLIX 170831
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE QUIET AND UNUSUALLY PLEASANT MID JULY DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THE AREA TODAY BEFORE AN EXTENDED UNSETTLED PERIOD COMMENCES
ON FRIDAY. AN ATYPICAL DRY AIRMASS FOR MID SUMMER PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND THEN TRAVERSING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN. HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS APPEAR TO BE IN ORDER FOR FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE ON
THE STRONGER SIDE WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AND
VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...THE WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND EACH DAY DURING UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BEING SITUATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER RIDGES
WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT PREVAILING OVER REGION WHILE A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN NEAR NORMAL VALUES NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE ROCKIES SHOULD
PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE SOME LOWER CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY SOMEWHERE AROUND FL040...DEVELOPING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. LOOKS LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND
12Z FRIDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEYOND THAT...WIND AND WAVE REGIME SHOULD BE
FAIRLY BENIGN WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHEN A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  67  86  70 /   0  20  60  50
BTR  89  70  87  72 /   0  20  60  50
ASD  89  71  88  72 /   0  10  50  50
MSY  89  75  88  75 /   0  10  50  50
GPT  89  71  88  75 /   0  10  50  40
PQL  88  69  88  72 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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