Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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245
FXUS64 KLIX 182046
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE MORNING RAIN AREA...THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AS CLOUDS NEVER REALLY GOT OUT OF THE WAY TO ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
70S...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SPOTS MAY NOSE ABOVE 80 DEGREES BEFORE
THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

PLENTY OF WILD CARDS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND GET
ABSORBED BY UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE U.S-CANADIAN BORDER.
IMPULSES FOCUSING THE GULF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THREAT OF WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GULF CONVECTION
CONTINUING. IN ADDITION...RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 72 HOURS HAS
ONLY BEEN AROUND 1 INCH IN MOST AREAS...AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
HAS REBOUNDED ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GET RID OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WITH PACKAGE ISSUANCE. IF GULF CONVECTION WERE TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...THERE WOULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
BEFORE DRIER AIR REACHES THE AREA.

SECOND CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE COLUMN ON SUNDAY...BUT
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING. NAM SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNSTABLE THAN GFS SOUNDINGS...BUT BOTH SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AND THAT IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
SOUTH...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WILL
ONLY BE CARRYING POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN QUITE A FEW PLACES.

SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EVEN THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA AT MID WEEK. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN MOISTURE AND PRESENT A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. START TO SEE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS BEYOND THAT AND WILL BLEND
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. WILL NOT BE A COMPLETELY DRY PERIOD...BUT NOT
AS WET AS THE PAST WEEK HERE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR AND AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING. KHUM...KBTR AND KMCB ARE THE SITES MOST
LIKELY TO SEE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT...AFTER 06Z...WITH AREAS OF FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN DOMINATING. 11

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN WILL BE OBSERVED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND
THEN SOUTH. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THRU SUNDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  83  64  77 /  50  20  20  10
BTR  67  84  65  79 /  40  20  20  10
ASD  69  84  67  81 /  50  20  20  10
MSY  70  84  69  81 /  50  20  20  10
GPT  71  81  70  80 /  60  30  20  10
PQL  70  82  69  82 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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