Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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840
FXUS64 KLIX 242034
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD OVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY
STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FOG OVERNIGHT BUT STILL MAY HAVE SOME
PATCHES IN PLACES WHERE DRAINAGE AND LOCALIZED DECOUPLING MAY
OCCUR. MODELS INDICATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN UPON APPROACH
WITH SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FOR PERHAPS 20
PERCENT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDRERSTORM OR TWO IN THE
MORNING. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES BRIEFLY INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY BUT SOON FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME
SEA BREEZE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO ISSUES EXPECTED
SATURDAY UNDER ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...
SPRING STORM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMING DEEP FETCHED ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FINE EXCEPT FOR STEADILY INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND WIND LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH SHOWING THE INITIAL PUNCH OF CONVECTION
WEAKENING UPON APPROACH MONDAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE BULK
OF THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE NORTH FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY. THE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LESS IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE BETTER HELICITIES
MAY MAKE THE EARLIER PRE-FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE UPPER SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
AND MIDWEST AND SENDS A COLD POOL SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY AND THE GULF STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS PASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY WHEREBY THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
HOLDS FRONTAL PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF ACTUALLY STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR A LONG DURATION
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST WILL LEAN TO
THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS WITH CONCESSION THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
LOWER END IFR/LIFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK AND
SHALLOW FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MFVR MAINLY AFTER 15Z AS
INCREASING HUMIDITY KEEPS BKN020-025 DECK AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
PASSING THROUGH IN THE MORNING BUT 20 PERCENT POPS NOT WORTHY OF
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY DISRUPTED FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIDGES A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THE NORTH GULF. AS THE
AIR MASS MODERATES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME BY LATER FRIDAY AND
INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS SATURDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING SPRING STORM IN THE PLAINS STATES. STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY BE IN A SQUALL COME TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX THREAT FOR NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  83  55  84 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  65  84  59  83 /  20  20  10  10
ASD  63  80  62  82 /  20  20  10  10
MSY  66  82  65  83 /  20  20  10  10
GPT  65  80  62  82 /  20  20  10  10
PQL  62  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






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