Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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244
FXUS64 KLIX 240915
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE FIELD AND NON-DESCRIPT PATTERN OVER THE
GULF STATES THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED A CLOUD DECK AROUND 3-4KFT
THAT WAS SLOWLY BECOMING ENRICHED BY MARITIME RETURN FLOW ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST WHERE CEILINGS WERE LOWERING. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOG NOT FORM THUSFAR...BUT SOME LIGHT LOCALIZED FOG MAY
STILL RESULT BY DAYBREAK. MARINE LAYER AIR ADVANCES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHEN CLOUDS BREAK.
WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO MODEL BLENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL HEATING LIKELY TO BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...INTO THE AT LEAST THE LOWER
80S WITH MAYBE A LOCATION OR TWO IN THE MID 80S. THIS MAY AID IN
DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM GENERATION. THE
CHAP GUIDANCE OFF THE NAM MODEL RUN DOES HINT AT A RISK OF LOW END
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHILE THE GFS HAS NO INDICATIONS. WILL JUST
INDICATE GENERAL THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS NEXT FEW RUNS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW NEXT TUESDAY MAY BE LADENED WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE EJECTS
ACROSS THE LOWER STATES...BUT GREATER RAIN THREAT MAY HOLD OUT
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE END
TIME. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. CIGS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET. CLOUDS MAY
HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD BIT OF THE DAY BEFORE SOME BREAKS SHOW UP BY
SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING WANES. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS VEERING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OVER THIS PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
PERIOD OF TRANSITION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST BY THE EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SLIDES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT COULD BE IN A
WEAKENING STATE AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  56  80  56 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  78  57  81  57 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  77  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  76  61  80  62 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  75  61  78  62 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  76  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
MEFFER



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