Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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499
FXUS64 KLIX 171058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
458 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THINGS BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEVERE WEATHER
COMING TO AN END. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD TO OFFSHORE
WATERS. A SUB-100 MILE WIDE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
RACING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST LA. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY NEAR HAMMOND...SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS/AL
BORDER BY AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FAST MOVEMENT. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK BUT BECOME CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE HIGHS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY. SO MUCH SO THAT ELEVATED WINDS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 WILL RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY TODAY.
TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PLACEMENT OF
WARNINGS. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAV HAS BEEN
DEADSET ON LOW TO MID 20S FOR SOUTHEAST LA ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 12 OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. AREAS
SOUTH OF I-12 WILL BE IN THE 27-32 DEGREE RANGE. BLENDED AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS TEND TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.
KEPT THE FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD AND
THUS WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. WILL BE GOING
WITH HARD FREEZE FOR MOST OF THE BATON ROUGE METRO...NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND SW MS. COASTAL MS HAS BEEN EXCLUDED B/C WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S RATHER THAN
MID TO LOWER 20S. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THERE
SOUTHWARD IN LA...EXCLUDING COASTAL PARISHES. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF
NEW ORLEANS MAY SEE 32...ENOUGH PORTIONS OF THAT PARISH AND
SURROUNDING ONES SHOULD HAVE LOCATIONS THAT DO. NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FREEZE WARNING
ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT BUT WILL AT LEAST HAVE
TO CONSIDER THE MS COAST THIS TIME AS WINDS WILL NOT BE A HINDRANCE
TO COOLING.

.LONG TERM...
THE FOLLOWING DAYS THIS WEEK WILL BE PART OF A WARMING TREND AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THUS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY. MID
60 HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK BY THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AS AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE IT DOES SO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS LOOK PRIMED FOR STORMS AS WELL.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS
ASCENDING FROM IFR CONDITION FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z.
NORTH WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED
TONIGHT FOR KMSY AND KMSY. CEILINGS SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODE AROUND
00Z TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCALES.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT STRONGER GUSTS TO GALE CAN BE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PROTECTED WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUESDAY WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS
             AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  24  46  23 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  49  24  49  25 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  51  25  49  23 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  50  33  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  52  27  49  26 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  53  27  49  20 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...IBERVILLE...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE
     COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST.
     TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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