Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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972
FXUS64 KLIX 252039
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
339 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF...VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COASTLINE HAS CERTAINLY INCREASED IN ITS OVERALL APPEARANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE PUSHING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A LARGE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL GULF BUT IS REMANING WELL OFFSHORE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WAS A BIT SLOW TO GET GOING THIS MORNING DUE
TO CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
HAS REBOUNDED NICELY IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHSHORE AND IN THE METRO NEW
ORLEANS AREA AS TEMPERATURES THERE STRUGGLED TO GET TO THE 90
DEGREE MARK. THERE IS SURELY STILL A WINDOW OF TIME FOR
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR THERE AS WELL.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE CONVECTION THAT
HAS DEVELOPED SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS ALTHOUGH A FEW
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
STRONG WINDS AND THE POSSIBLITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD DUMP
A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE RATHER QUICKLY AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST.

.LONG TERM...

THE BACK AND FORTH PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION ON
THURSDAY...AS RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS STATES LEAVING US BETWEEN
THE TWO FEATURES. BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA...BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THE RESULT IN
OUR AREA WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE OPPRESIVE
HEAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND ALSO BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT A BIT. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
AMPLE FORCING OVER THE AREA...AND EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH DAYS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED AT NIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO THE
THREAT OF POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS TO FORM. THE LARGEST THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE
TO 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS FORECAST TO
BE YESTERDAY. THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THIS CONVECTION RETARDED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
SINCE 1830Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS AND WILL CARRY A 4 HOUR WINDOW FOR TEMPO MENTION
OF CONVECTION. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AT
SEVERAL TERMINALS...GENERALLY IN THE FL025 RANGE. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. WILL
END THE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS...BUT CONTINUE IT
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
OVER THE WEEKEND. LIKELY TO NEED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER THE
OPEN WATERS TOMORROW INTO AT LEAST PART OF TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE
RELAXING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE
MAIN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

MCB 69 93 66 94 / 20 10 10 10
BTR 73 94 69 94 / 40 10 10 20
ASD 73 92 72 92 / 30 10 10 20
MSY 76 91 75 92 / 30 20 20 30
GPT 72 91 73 91 / 30 10 10 20
PQL 71 90 73 90 / 30 10 10 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35






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