Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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561
FXUS64 KLIX 270058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MOBILE ALABAMA AT NEARLY 106K
FEET...OR ABOUT 20 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.34
INCHES. JUST A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION NEAR FL250. THE CIRRUS
DECK AT SUNSET PROVIDED SOME RATHER PICTURESQUE VISTAS. WINDS WERE
OUT OF THE NORTH FROM THE SURFACE TO FL060...THEN BECAME WESTERLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLIGHT THROUGH 100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 133
KNOTS AT 38.3K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 9.1K FEET AND -20C
LEVEL WAS AT 20.6K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PERIODS
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...STARTING TONIGHT AS A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS
OVER THE SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING...AND BASED ON LAST NIGHTS TRENDS...SOME OF THE STATIONS
EXPERIENCING THE LONGER PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE. AM STILL INDICATING A LIGHT
FREEZE FOR THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FINALLY MODIFY ON SATURDAY...AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE HIGHS TO WARM TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT CREEPS NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DIGGING TROUGH DIVES SOUTH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST TOWARDS
BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
ERODE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH NEAR OUR COAST. MINOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW SUNDAY TO BE ONE OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE DAYS OF THE
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO STRONG
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
22/TD

AVIATION...

VRR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP AREAWIDE WITH MVFR/IFR BACK IN PLACE. MORE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NEAR THOSE SPEEDS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
NOON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH CHANDELEUR
AND BRETON SOUNDS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THESE ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA...AS ALL MODELS INDICATED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND FROM
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST. FOR THOSE WAITING FOR LIGHTER WINDS
AND GOOD CONDITIONS FOR BOATING AND FISHING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY SHOULD FINALLY BE THE PERIOD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  49  31  59 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  32  52  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  32  53  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  37  51  41  59 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  33  54  36  60 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  31  54  35  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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