Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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466
FXUS64 KLIX 270917
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SYNOPSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN WEAKENED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST. 11-3.9 IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF HOUSTON...RACING EASTWARD. THESE
FEATURES WILL DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO MID LEVELS ALONG THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA TODAY WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES UP COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 30 PCT FROM BTR TO ASD AND
SOUTHWARD...THEN OVER 50 PCT ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL SPLIT THE UPPER RIDGE THATS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS WILL BE THE SETUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE GULF IS
OPENED UP TO THE AREA. IMPULSES RIDING AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO
THE EAST WILL PASS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES. THUS THINKING COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL RATES QUITE HEAVY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT DAILY WARMING...SO HAVE KEPT
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO COME BACK DOWN STARTING NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH FINALLY LIFTS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
FORMING AFTER 15Z...BUT CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 4000 TO 8000
FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS
TODAY.  WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE...EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE
INITIAL TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS...ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH WILL RIDE
UP FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.  WINDS
WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINANT OVER THE GULF AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH MONDAY.  SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND 1
TO 2 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  91  73  90  73 /  30  20  30  10
ASD  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  30  10
MSY  91  77  91  77 /  40  20  30  10
GPT  91  75  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  90  71  90  73 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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