Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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577
FXUS64 KLIX 241724
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS CLEARING AWAY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF WILL
SPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...AND
PROBABLY ONLY AFFECT KGPT. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

UPDATE...
VIS SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BOTH INDICATE THAT THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH WINDS NW TO WEST AT ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL STEADILY DROP AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN FROM BTR TO MCB AND NW. THE FIGHT
BETWEEN INCOMING SHORTWAVE RADIATION AND CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE DAY..GIVE OR TAKE A FEW
DEGREES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR COOLING IS AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
FRONT OR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

MEFFER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BEGIN OUR MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS TEMPERATURES STAYED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH MOST
OF THE EVENING. PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A
FEW SPOTS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND USHER
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT A PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. YOU MIGHT NOT FEEL THAT
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT YOU WILL FEEL IT
TONIGHT AS LOWS DIVE BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL TOP OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SLIDELL TO NEW ORLEANS DOWN TO
HOUMA. ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...A REINFORCING HIGH WILL
BUILD IN AND THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN AND TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
13/MH

AVIATION...
STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER POTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOME ADVECTION
FOG WAS ALSO BEING OBSERVED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MID AND LATE
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY PROVIDING LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND LEAD TO WINDS RAMPING BACK UP ONCE AGAIN. SCY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT BUT LIKELY MORE TOMORROW
AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WED
MORNING AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE MARINE
ZONES. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  37  58  36 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  64  39  60  37 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  71  38  60  37 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  70  46  59  42 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  73  40  59  39 /  10  20  20  30
PQL  71  37  60  38 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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