Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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536
FXUS64 KLIX 241014
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...WELL PRECIPITATION HAS HAD A RATHER DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...APPEARS LAST NIGHTS GFS WAS CORRECT FOR OUR
AREA WITH FAR LESS PRECIP COVERAGE. IN ADDITION TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO DROP TO 32 IN MUCH OF THE ADV AREA. AS NOTED LAST NIGHT THIS WAS
A CONCERN AS IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A 1 TO 2 DEGREE SHIFT IN SFC TEMPS
TO CAUSE HAVOC TO THE FCST. WITH THAT AND THE PRECIP NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADV. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN WILKINSON CNTY BUT
OVERALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART.

TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET AS THE AREA WILL BE B/W DISTURBANCES.
WHAT LITTLE PRECIP IS OVER THE REGION RIGHT NOW SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH
WEST AND OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY.

CLOSED LOW WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND
NUDGE EAST TODAY BUT REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP STEAM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
PUSHING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED
MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE WRN/NWRN GULF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND NO
REAL MID LVL FOCUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION DRY DURING THE
EVNG HRS BUT AFTER 6Z COOLING HGHTS IN THE MID LVLS AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO LGT SHRA DEVELOPING OVER WRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AND EXPANDING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS. RAIN
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE WED AS FORCING INCREASES DUE TO THE
THE STRONG S/W MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH ADDED
SUPPORT OF THE SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OVER THE NRN GULF. AS FOR
TSRA...THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT IT WILL GENERALLY
BE ABV H7 AND AT BEST AROUND 125 J/KG. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
WINDOW OF THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY LIKELY B/T 18-21/00Z. ONE
POSITIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA IS THE MID LVL FLOW WHICH
WILL APPROACH 90KTS RIGHT OVER THE REGION. THAT SAID HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP TSRA OUT BUT STILL ANTICIPATED MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SERN HALF OR 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. AS ALL
OF OUR MAIN FEATURES PULL EAST OF THE AREA RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY
COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT WED.

ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE THE FAR NORTHWEST
AGAIN. THE COLD AIRMASS WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE AND
LATEST FCST SNDGS SHOW THAT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF WINTER
WEATHER OCCURRING IN SOUTHWESTERN MS. CURRENTLY THE WARM LAYER
APPEARS TO THICK FOR SNOW OR EVEN SLEET TO REACH THE SFC BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST.
MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A L/W TROUGH OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THEN OUR
REGION MOVING UNDER SW FLOW WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THU AND FRI WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME.
RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT WED/EARLY THU
BEHIND WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BELOW NORMAL
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND
MOISTURE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH WE WILL REMAIN DRY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL MODERATE AND THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE UNDER SW FLOW AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE DIGS DOWN THE PAC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL DOMINATE THE REGION SAT KEEPING THE
AREA DRY BUT BY SUN SRLY FLOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL ENTRENCHED TO
ALLOW ISOLATED LIGHT SHRA TO TRY TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL
TODAY. LIGHT RAIN IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...THERE STILL
MIGHT BE A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OUT THERE THIS MORNING BUT THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS HAVE SIMMERED DOWN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS RAMP UP QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE LOW...THEN A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY...WILL KEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE
STRONGER SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 13/MH

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  35  42  31 /  30  40  90  20
BTR  47  39  45  33 /  30  40 100  20
ASD  50  42  47  34 /  30  40 100  30
MSY  49  44  48  37 /  30  40 100  20
GPT  51  43  48  36 /  30  40 100  30
PQL  51  42  48  35 /  30  40 100  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 13/MH





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