Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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173
FXUS64 KLIX 150833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL LAND AREAS AS OF 3 AM...WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM GULFPORT TO GRAND ISLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WHERE
WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH
ALL AREAS SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
HAS COME UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW
CARRYING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE AT MOST SITES. WILL MENTION COLD
TEMPERATURES IN HWO AND PROBABLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING COLD TEMPERATURES.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
MONDAY...AND ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
MODERATION WILL BEGIN THEN...BUT EVEN THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
DETAILS IN EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CARRY
THURSDAYS SHORTWAVE OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT ECMWF UNCHARACTERISTICALLY CUTS OFF A LOW IN THE SAME
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH STALLS THE PATTERN BRIEFLY. THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED BY WPC...LENDING SOMEWHAT MORE
CREDENCE TO GFS SOLUTION. A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH MODELS PICK UP ON THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT ECMWF SOLUTION DOES NOT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA.

WILL CARRY SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND THEN DRY UNTIL THE MONDAY
SHORTWAVE...WHERE SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT
THE TAF SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 11 AM TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY LOCALLY STRONG
MAGNITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
             WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ORLEANS PARISH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  34  64  44 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  61  35  67  48 /  10   0  10  10
ASD  62  34  65  48 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  62  44  65  54 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  63  38  65  52 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  62  35  65  49 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER
     ST. BERNARD.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







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