Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

000
FXUS64 KLIX 012106
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
306 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCING NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES STATES HAS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR MEMPHIS AND JUST EAST OF
SHREVEPORT. FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS AND SHOULD
REACH BATON ROUGE AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA
IS JUST CLOUDY...BUT THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGE FROM THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT RIGHT NOW...BUT
WILL HOLD ON TO CURRENT LIKELY POPS FOR THE EVENING. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER
WEAK. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS VERY LOW.
RAIN AMOUNTS ONLY LIKELY TO BE ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.25 WHERE RAIN
ACTUALLY OCCURS.

FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB FALL ABOUT 12-15C OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHICH MEANS SURFACE TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE 20-25F COOLER
TOMORROW WITH SOME AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S. NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ARE GOING TO MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. CENTER
REMAINS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...SO WE MIGHT NOT GET QUITE AS
COLD AS IT ORIGINALLY APPEARED ON TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN SO...MUCH
OF THE AREA NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN LIKELY TO DIP BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING.

AS SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY ONWARD. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH
TIMING OF SURFACE LOW WITH GFS NOW THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. NAM
IS CLOSER TO ECMWF ON TIMING. HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED APPROACH TO
FIT IN WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. POPS WILL BE TAPERED ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EXTREME SOUTH LOUISIANA TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO LOW DEPARTS
THE AREA. BEYOND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DEGRADES
CONSIDERABLY AS GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN GFS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND MUCH COOLER NEXT MONDAY...JUST BEYOND
THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR NEXT SUNDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR IN AND AROUND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT
A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND
BECOMING GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...

A FEW RELATIVELY BENIGN HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL RAMP UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CARRYING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS
FROM 06Z TONIGHT TO 00Z TUESDAY. LIKELY TO BE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE LATE TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE
WARNING. FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES EAST LATE TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ON TIMING OF SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AT
MIDWEEK...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  45  28  52 /  80  10   0  10
BTR  39  48  30  53 /  70   0   0  10
ASD  42  49  30  52 /  70  10   0  10
MSY  45  49  36  53 /  70  10   0  10
GPT  43  50  31  53 /  70  10   0  10
PQL  43  51  29  54 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.