Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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331
FXUS64 KLIX 312038
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 70S...BUT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING INTO THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE DRIEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST IN ARKANSAS...MISSOURI AND KANSAS...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY
MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY.

MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS AS
LOW AS 1000 FEET LATER THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY AS EARLIER ISSUED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA ELSEWHERE OVER LAND. MIXING WILL HELP PREVENT
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

TOMORROW IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAY SINCE EARLY MARCH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TOMORROW NIGHT AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. WITH THIS
BEING THE FIRST COLD SPELL OF THE YEAR...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A
FREEZE WATCH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING
NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN. BEYOND
TUESDAY...LARGE DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS IS
THE FASTEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TO HOUSTON BY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY
WEDNESDAY WHICH SPREADS A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER...NEAR
EL PASO ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CANADIAN IS EVEN SLOWER WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND WILL
BE USED FOR NOW. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
20-30 RANGE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON RAIN CHANCES. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS AT KMSY AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT
KNEW FROM ABOUT 23Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 12Z SATURDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG COLD FRONT WITH COLDEST AIR OF SEASON WILL HELP TRANSPORT
STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS DOWN FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
TONIGHT. PATTERN OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO BE NEAR OR ON THE STRONG SIDE OF MARINE MOS GUIDANCE
TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE WARNING
VALID THROUGH 6 AM ON SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN
COASTAL WATERS...THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
THEN MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RISING AGAIN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING WINDS
UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY BEFORE EASING BACK TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. 22/TD


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 PERCENT TOMORROW WITH
15-20 MPH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IN
COORDINATION WITH THE US FOREST SERVICE AND MISSISSIPPI FORESTRY
CONCERNS...WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...GALE WARNING...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  38  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  38  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  46  59  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  41  60  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE
     COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST.
     TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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