437
FXUS64 KLIX 131923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
223 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER FLOW FROM CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO SPREADING QUITE
A BIT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THE ONLY LAND
AREAS BEING AFFECTED ARE THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. WHERE
CIRRUS IS AFFECTING THE COAST...TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 70.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S AT 2 PM.
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

EASTERN UPPER TROF EXITS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MEXICAN UPPER LOW OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE BATTLING RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY UNDER THE RIDGE...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUDS AS THIS IMPULSE PASSES ON THURSDAY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WILL SEE A
COUPLE MORE MORNINGS WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUMS NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR
AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER QUICKLY AND END UP NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND DO NOT SEE A REASON TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS FROM IT. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY UPPER IMPULSE...SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING NICE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT AGAIN WILL BE FIGHTING
THE SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER FLORIDA. WILL CARRY POPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THAT IS SLIGHTLY BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS AS
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM A NORTHEAST AND EAST DIRECTION TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING. 32

&&

.MARINE...

UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLING OVER THE GULF WILL BRING
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS BEING PREVALENT FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  84  56  82 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  53  85  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  49  83  57  82 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  58  83  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  51  82  59  81 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  47  81  55  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$