Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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926
FXUS64 KLIX 251326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SUCCESSFULL FLIGHT THIS MORNING. SOUNDING IS VERY MOIST WITH
PW MEASURED AT 1.95 INCHES. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM 750MB
TO 650MB THEN ABOVE 600MB. WINDS WESTERLY AT THE SFC THEN NW
FLOW ALOFT. ENTIRE SOUNDING IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SOUNDING BY A DEGREE OR TWO. SOME PARAMETERS FROM THE FLIGHT. 500
MB TEMPERATURE IS -6C...CHANCE OF SEVERE VERY LOW...LFC PRESSURE
WAS 868MB... AND THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 564MB.

&&

.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND CAROLINAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO CENTRAL BAMA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. NORTH WINDS WERE LOCATED AT JACKSON AND POINTS
NORTH AND DEWPOINT READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S SOUTH OF
GREENWOOD/MS. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEMARCATION LINE WITH DRY AIR NORTH FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTH
ALABAMA TO BTR TO LCH. PLANER VIEW OF PW VALUES SHOWED THE MID
LAYER DRYING AND POOL OF MOISTURE FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS TO
MISSISSIPPI COAST TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES.
5H TEMPS WERE AROUND -5C ALONG LOUISIANA COAST AND -4C OVER NORTH
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. 18

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LAYERS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHT PUSH TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. PW VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 1.4 INCHES
JUST NORTH OF BTR AND REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE
RIVER PARISHES...TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. SURFACE
HEATING WITH MOISTURE MAY YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND POINTS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AT SAME
TIME...WARMING IN THE MID LAYER WILL RESULT IN SKINNY CAPES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES STARTING AROUND 2000J/KG THIS MORNING
TO 700J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR MID DAY THEN DECREASING COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. WARM MID
LAYER TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED IN
NATURE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER RED RIVER VALLEY AND
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S. 18

LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN
AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND
THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPS ACROSS NORTH HALF MAY RESPOND DOWN INTO 60S FOR MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE MORE FOG PRONE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TODAY...AND ALSO AROUND ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GPT TO MSY TO
HUM LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  92  72  92  74 /  40  20  30  10
MSY  90  76  93  77 /  40  20  30  10
GPT  92  76  92  77 /  40  20  30  10
PQL  91  75  92  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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