Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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242
FXUS64 KLIX 160101
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
801 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES LOWER /COOLER/ AT ANY
GIVEN LEVEL THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME UP TO 400MB. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE DOWN TO 0.32 INCHES THIS EVENING AND THE DRY AIR
IS EASILY OBSERVED VIA WV IMAGERY AS WELL. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 62
KNOTS AT 41500 FEET AND 52500 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: THIS EVENING/S FLIGHT LASTED 108 MINUTES BEFORE
THE BALLOON BURST OVER CHANDELEUR SOUND 50 MILES DOWNRANGE AT A
HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...STACKED LOW AT 15Z WAS OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. NW FLOW
OVER ALL OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NORTH
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. AT THE SFC...MON/S COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE GULF AND PUSHING INTO THE YUCATAN AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT DRAPED BACK TO THE SW OVER THE GRT SALT LAKE AND INTO NV.
CLEAR SKIES WERE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND TEMPS WERE RISING NICELY
WITH THE ENTIRE AREA BACK IN THE 60S BY 15Z. /CAB/

SHORT TERM...FALL LIKE WEATHER ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S THIS AFTN. OVERALL FCST LOOKS
RATHER QUIET WITH TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATING.

TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WE WILL SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMBING...H925 TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 19C BY FRI AHEAD OF A
WEAK/DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. DRY NW FLOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR BUT THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS ACROSS THE SRN CONUS THU NIGHT
TEMPORARILY. AS THIS OCCURS HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO SPILL BACK IN
FRI. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CNTRD OVER THE REGION
PROVIDING LGT WINDS AND WITH TD/S IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WE COULD
SEE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SRN HALF. THE ISSUE TONIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO LOWS...LL WINDS. MDLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS JUST ABV
THE SFC IN THE 10 TO EVEN 20 KT RANGE AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO MIXING
HAVING IMPLICATIONS ON MORNING LOWS. WITH THAT WILL RAISE LOWS A
DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS FCST WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. IF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC ARE
LIGHTER THEN THE CURRENT LOWS WILL BE TOO WARM. AS SAID EARLIER TEMP
MODERATION BEGINS TOMORROW AND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH LL TEMPS
UP A FEW DEGREES AND HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LVLS. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH HERE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS SHOW
SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SWRN GULF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS WEEKEND...AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVED OFF TO THE NE INTO CANADA FRI
THE L/W TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN CONUS AS TWO
SEPARATE S/W DROP DOWN THE BACK SIDE OUT OF CNTRL CANADA. THE FIRST
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY SAT WITH THE
SECOND HELPING TO DRIVE DOWN THE FRONT TO THE GULF SAT NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD
BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT SAID IT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR BUT NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALL OF THE MDLS ARE INDICATING SOME SORT OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SWRN GULF. FIRST OFF AT THIS TIME IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS...AND THAT IS A BIG IF...THE IMPACTS ON OUR AREA
WOULD BE ALMOST STRICTLY CONTAINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. A RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE SAME TIME WITH LOW MOST
LIKELY MEANDERING DEEP IN THE SWRN GULF. HOWEVER WHAT WILL OCCUR
WILL BE A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WILL DISCUSS A LITTLE MORE IN THE MARINE SECTION OF THE
AFD. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT AT THIS TIME IMPACTS TO
THE LAND ARE MINIMAL AND LIKELY CONTAINED TO TIDAL ISSUES DUE TO A
LONG FETCH OVER THE ERN GULF PUSHING WATER INTO THE REGION. /CAB/

MARINE...WNW FLOW OF AROUND 15 KNOTS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO ABATE
AND WILL DISCONTINUE THE SCS HEADLINES WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE 21Z
PACKAGE.  THE GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOME
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
WINDS ON THE LIGHT END. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO  SEAS FALLING FROM 3
TO 5 FEET TO AROUND ONE FOOT OR LESS BY THE WEEKEND.  THE HIGH WILL
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (POSSIBLY TROPICAL IN NATURE) WILL ALSO
FORM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. IF THIS OCCURS YOU CAN EXPECTED A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH INCREASING ERLY FLOW. WINDS
MAY RESPOND AS EARLY AS TUE MORNING APPROACHING SCY CONDITIONS. SEAS
W3ILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AS WELL...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND SEE
IF THIS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AND ADJUST THE COASTAL WATERS FCST AS
NECESSARY. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST AND NO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  50  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  47  80  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  81  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  80  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  46  80  47  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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