Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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563
FXUS64 KLIX 200825
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.

LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST
PLACES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH TO SAY THAT HASN/T BEEN SAID OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

DEEP RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE AREA/S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS RESULTING IN WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHILE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO TOP OUT
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...FORCING A WEAK COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ON
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST. WITH THAT SAID...THE TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT WILL BE BASICALLY NONEXISTENT BY THE
TIME IT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

DEEP RIDGING WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY FORCING A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO SE LA AND S MS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KMCB AND KHUM WHERE MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS IN
LIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09-14Z MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UP UNTIL THE COLD FRONT EXPECT PRETTY BENIGN
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  56  79  59 /   0  10  20  20
BTR  83  58  81  59 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  82  56  80  59 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  80  60  79  61 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  81  58  79  60 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  80  54  78  56 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...18
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





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