Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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950
FXUS64 KLIX 271340
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
740 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS 35 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE
TOP OF AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 1200 FT. THE TEMPERATURE WARMS 11 F
JUST ABOVE THE SFC IN THIS LAYER AS WELL. NORTHWEST FLOW IS
PRESENT THROUGHOUT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 88 KTS AT 240 MB. THE
AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY RESULTING IN PW OF .55 INCHES.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 983MB LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...4MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND 1022MB
HIGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. A WEAK WEST FLOW WAS NOTED OVER LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI AT 10Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHEAST CONUS....NORTHWEST FLOW FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST CONUS AND RIDGE AXIS FROM TEXAS TO
NORTHWEST CONUS. 18

DISCUSSION...

THE WORK WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE TROUGH POSITION ALONG
THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT EAST OF THE
EAST COAST AND ALLOW THE FLATTEN RIDGE TO TRACK EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUT HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY.

A STRONG WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE AND MAINTAIN
COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. GFS AND EURO ARE STILL SHOWING A
POSITIVELY TILTED BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY YIELD SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUNDAY. GFS LINGER THE LOW OVER
TEXAS AND OLD MEXICO NEXT AND EURO SHEARS THE TROUGH AND TRACKS
THE TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY. BOTH SHOW SOME INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE GULF THAT MAY LINGER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK. 18

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. T. CURRENT NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOMING NW AT LESS THAN
10 KTS TODAY WITH THIN CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD.

MEFFER

MARINE...

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
STILL EXIST OFFSHORE AND THUS WILL BE EXTENDING THE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE. BUOY 42040 SHOWS WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED
TO JUST OVER 20 KNOTS...AND WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE... THINKING IS THAT THESE SPEEDS ARE TEMPORARY AND
SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE SOON ENOUGH THAT SCA ISN/T MERITED.
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SW GOM
SPREADING EAST WILL BRING DOWN WINDS AREAWIDE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL MERELY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15
KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA WED AND THEN ROTATE EAST THURSDAY WHICH
WILL BRING LOCAL WINDS BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE. YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND A REPEAT OF WINDS
ROTATING AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  38  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  70  40  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  68  41  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  65  45  61  48 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  66  42  59  45 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  66  39  60  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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