430
FXUS64 KLIX 200433
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. 11

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO CURRENT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND TROUGH OVER THE REST
TO THE WEST. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WILL PERSIST UNDER THESE CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN...IF ANY. COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING LLVL MOISTURE INCREASED AND DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULTS IN CONTINUED WARM LOWS. CLOUDS TO
CLEAR UP SOMEWHAT BY THE AFTERNOON BUT NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS WEEK.
RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE PUSHED EAST BY WEDNESDAY. BY ESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
RISE AND BEGIN TO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY THOUGH MAY SEEM MORE LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH
CONVECTION MOVING LITTLE TO POSSIBLY SOUTH. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
BRING IN ENOUGH DRY AIR TO DIMINISH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SOMEWHAT
BUT MIGHT NOT BE COMPLETELY. IT APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BEYOND THAT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

MEFFER

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THAT
FASHION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SEAS THRU THAT PERIOD TO BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF BEGINNING
MID WEEK. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST AND CAUSE
THE WIND FIELD TO BREAKDOWN. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS
THROUGH AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. ONLY EXPECTING A WIND  SHIFT AT
THIS POINT. ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN BEYOND THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT
WINDS TO CALM A BIT. LOW CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS EXPECTED GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVERS
             SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  88  68  87 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  71  89  71  89 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  87  69  86 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  72  87  71  87 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  84  69  84 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  69  85  68  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$