Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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925
FXUS64 KLIX 191301
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
701 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STATES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.16
INCHES. THIS DRY AIR HAS HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND
RECORD VALUES /SEE NEWRERLIX/. THERE ARE MULTIPLE TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS ON THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS
FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 FEET OF 9 DEGREES CELSIUS. WARMER
AIR HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO FROM 100 TO
6000 FEET...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE UP TO 3700
FEET AND THEN BECOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM 9000 FEET TO THE
TOP OF THE TROPOPAUSE.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING WITH NO ISSUES.
THE BALLOON BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 19.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND OVER
MOLINO FL ABOUT 140 MILES DOWNRANGE. THE FLIGHT LASTED 106 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND THUS BEGIN THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING
500MB HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH MILDER TEMPS
EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THUS ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO
MODIFY. MID 60 HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK BY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS
AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE IT DOES SO SATURDAY EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. BULK
SHEAR OF 70+KTS WHICH IS NEAR THE MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR STILL
LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WHICH COMBINED WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PRODUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
SLIGHTLY FASTER CLEARING OF SH/TS ACTIVITY SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS A DEEP TROUGH
SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. 18

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST
TODAY. A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAYBE BE NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS
             AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  39  65  47 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  61  42  67  48 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  58  39  66  47 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  59  46  67  54 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  55  40  64  48 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  55  34  65  43 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.
MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...AND WILKINSON.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...AND WALTHALL.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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