Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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714
FXUS64 KLIX 160945
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A GULFPORT TO HOUMA LINE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS SEEING AT MOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BUT MORE COMMONLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AS HIGH
AS 30 KNOTS BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AND RIGHT ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY DROPPING ABOUT 6
DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
DEWPOINTS FALLING AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE HRRR QPF OUTPUT IS SPOT ON
FOR INITIATION AND HAS BEEN DOING WELL FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. GOING
OFF THAT...WHATS LEFT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY NOON.

TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN INSOLATION AND COOL AIR MOVING
IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY OR LOWER TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON
FCST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO
NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO IMPACT THE AREA COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS
SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHOOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE MAIN PIECE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THUS COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES IS WHERE THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. DRYING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE JUST AS COOL AS WELL WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE
SHRA HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NW/NNW THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RELAX AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT...IN FACT THE SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN QUIET. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A SHORT WHILE BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW SCS
HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE MIDDAY. CAA IS JUST NOT THAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT COMBINE THAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEING RATHER FAR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NEXT SFC LOW ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP FRI WITH SCY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  34  58  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  37  61  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  35  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  65  44  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  69  35  61  39 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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