Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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965
FXUS64 KLIX 170048
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
748 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST AND NORTH FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 0.50 INCHES THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO REMAIN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY
AGAIN...THOUGH NOT AS OF A ROBUST CHANGE AS YESTERDAY/S. THE
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS DEVELOPING WITH THE SURFACE INVERSION
BEGINNING TO FORM. THERE IS ANOTHER INVERSION STARTING AT AROUND
880MB AS WELL. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH ARE UNDER 20 KNOTS
THROUGH 25000 FEET AND THEN AVERAGING 25 TO 35 KNOTS UNTIL
REACHING THE TROPOPAUSE. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 48 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 43500 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: TONIGHT/S BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING 15 MILES SOUTH OF BAY ST. LOUIS.
THE FLIGHT LASTED 100 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NO ISSUES OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME MINOR
PATCHY STEAM AND/OR RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THAT WOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY AROUND 8 AM.

LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A QUIET WEATHER REGIME OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND ESTABLISHES AN
EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK. A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL ALSO GET
UNDERWAY MONDAY ONWARD AND MAY ENTAIL A FEW MORNINGS OF MARINE
LAYER CLOUDINESS AND RADITIONAL ADVECTIVE FOG FORMATION AT SOME
POINT NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z WITH PERHAPS
SOME MVFR VSBY IN 5SM BR DUE TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH 14Z.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. EXCEPTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED DRAINAGE
ENHANCEMENTS NEAR SHORE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A GENERAL NE TO E FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY NEXT
WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  83  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  58  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  63  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  48  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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