Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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410
FXUS64 KLIX 162039
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
339 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THIS SUBSIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN LOW HUMIDITIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PULL TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. AS THIS OCCURS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRINGING
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE A
BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A MARINE
LAYER AIRMASS MOVES IN. A FEW SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS INSTABILITY BELOW A MID-
LEVEL CAP INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH. INCREASED
OMEGA AND A HIGHER PW AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE BATON ROUGE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLY PULL EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...WITH READINGS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EACH DAY. THESE READINGS
WILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SLIGHTLY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SLIDE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...ALLOWING FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RELATIVELY
WEAK...SO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS. 32

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z. MID
LAYER WILL STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFFECTING BTR
FIRST AND OTHER TAF POINTS BY 14Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY IMPACT THE TAF
SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND
CONTINUED BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER BETWEEN 2500 TO 3500 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW AND TRANSIT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY EVEN IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS TO THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE AS THESE WINDS INCREASE. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO AROUND 7
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SURFACE RIDGING
SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL
FALL TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  69  54  75 /  10  10  20  20
BTR  48  70  58  78 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  48  68  56  74 /  10  10  30  10
MSY  53  69  61  73 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  53  69  59  72 /  10  10  40  20
PQL  48  68  56  71 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32





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