Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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890
FXUS64 KLIX 301006
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...OUR FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE N AND NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN NICELY BEHIND IT WITH AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES IN ABOUT
3 HRS. ONE THING TO NOTE...MOST IF NOT ALL SITES HAVE LIKELY SEEN
THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY ALREADY AS EVERYONE AT 6Z WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LOOK FOR A MOSTLY QUIET FCST FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HRS. NEWLY
ESTABLISHED NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY BUT OUR AIRMASS WILL NOT GET
AS MUCH OF A SRN PUSH AND ACTUALLY START TO NUDGE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6-8C TODAY LEADING TO A RATHER
COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. AGAIN THE
OFFICIAL HIGH FOR THE CALENDAR DAY HAS LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AS CAA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL WARM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES.
THIS WILL FEEL COLD WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY AS WE WILL BE
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT STARTS TO OCCUR AND OUR SFC HIGH PUSHES
INTO APPALACHIA AND EVENTUALLY TWRDS THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST
LL TEMPS WILL START TO SLOWLY REBOUND. MOISTURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY
RECOVER. THE BULK OF THE CHANGES THOUGH WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE BAJA WILL SLOWLY NUDGE TWRDS MEXICO SAT NIGHT
BEFORE DIGGING ONCE AGAIN TWRDS THE SRN BAJA SUN NIGHT. THIS ALONG
WITH ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN SUN. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND AS THIS NRN STREAM S/W DROPS SE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IT WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TWRDS THE REGION. THIS FRONT...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LOWERING HGHTS IN THE MID LVLS ALONG WITH TAPPING INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN AMPLE SUPPORT FOR NUM
SHRA SUN. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW TSRA SUN AFTN AS
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE RRQ OF THE JET
TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG SUN BUT WE SHOULD SEE IT SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FCST AS THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE PRETTY LARGE STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
TUE. EURO HAS HAD THE LARGEST SHIFT FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN BUT IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT MODEL TIMING WISE BUT IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TO TWRDS THE GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS MOS ALONG
WITH THE GFES AND GEM. THE EURO AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER COLD MDL BUT WILL CLOSELY WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE MDLS
TREND.

ERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED SUN NIGHT AND WILL SEND OUR
SECOND COLD FRONT AND AIRMASS INTO THE AREA MON. THIS WILL KEEP US
COOL AND DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
SUN NIGHT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF. THIS OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL
BECOME ACTIVATED AS THE OLD CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA IS FINALLY
LIFTING OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO TX LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
SWRN GULF TUE. AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO TX TUE NIGHT IT WILL
OPEN UP AND PUT THE REGION UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND START LIFTING TO THE NE TWRDS OUR
CWA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES WED. AS PREV FCSTER
MENTIONED WE ARE STILL ON THE COLD WET SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY TSRA.

THIRD RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SFC LOW
BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS TO HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. THE EURO
HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT IS ALSO AT ODDS
WITH ITS OWN MOS WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE RAW MDL. THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL USE A
BLEND WITH A LEAN TWRDS THE GFS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...NOW SOUTH OF
MSY AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING HUM SHORTLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY AFTER FROPA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...STEADILY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND START PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RAMPING
UP QUICKLY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITION DURATION WILL BE QUITE SHORT...
ENDING BY AROUND NOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. ONLY OTHER CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS ADDING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE COMING IN BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD
BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE UPPER 20S AND A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP DURATION ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE LEAST CAN BE EXPECTED AS IT NEARS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  34  60  50 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  60  38  61  52 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  60  36  60  53 /   0   0   0  30
MSY  59  42  61  56 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  59  36  58  51 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  59  33  60  50 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
MARINE/AVIATION: MEFFER




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