Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
931
FXUS64 KLIX 300851
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER VORT MAX APPEARS TO BE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS.
MOST OF THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME
ACTIVITY WELL OUT INTO THE GULF SOUTH OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH...BUT
MOST OF THE AREA IS NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AS
OF 3 AM. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AIRMASS REMAINS EXTREMELY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL UPPER IMPULSE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN GENERALLY TO THE
WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THAT BEING SAID...STILL EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH THE EMPHASIS TO THE WEST
OF INTERSTATE 55. LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT RAINFALL
TOTALS ON FRIDAY WERE UNDER ONE HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
DO NOT PLAN ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THERE IS AT LEAST
A SMALL THREAT OF A WET MICROBURST OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED
POPS FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL CATEGORICAL OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS.

HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF ORGANIZED
LIFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER VORT...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE BACK TO THE MORE USUAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES
OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT SHOULD RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE.
GFS INDICATES A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT MIDWEEK WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
GFS FOR MIDWEEK WITH A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WHERE THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE WEDNESDAY DRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A CATEGORY OR
SO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY LIGHT SHRA MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF AN AIRPORT OR TWO
PRIOR TO 12Z ALONG WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR DUE TO CIGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE HIGH AFTER 12Z TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND KBTR...KMCB...KHUM AND KHDC COULD EXPERIENCE
MULTIPLE OCCURRENCES OF SHRA/TSRA. TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA...SO NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AFTER 00Z. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CIGS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

THE COMBINATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS RESULTING IN MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST COASTAL WATERS. NEAR
SURFACE WINDS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE LIKELY SUSTAINED 15
TO 20 KNOTS...AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
THE GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH FETCH
AND DURATION OF STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BRING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE GMZ570 BY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE A /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/ HEADLINE
IN EFFECT THERE THROUGH 7 PM TODAY. THE REMAINING COASTAL MARINE
ZONES WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS WILL HAVE THE CAUTION HEADLINE THIS
MORNING FOR WINDS WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 4 TO 5 FEET
RANGE. SLIGHTLY BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER PASSES TODAY. ALL AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OR TWO OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BE THE RULE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY PEAKING
SLIGHTLY OVER 15 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF SOUTHWEST
PASS.  SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET...PERHAPS A BIT
HIGHER OVER THE FAR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ON THE LOWER END ON
WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. MONITORING RADAR TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  74  90  74 / 100  30  30  10
BTR  86  75  92  76 / 100  30  30  10
ASD  88  75  91  77 /  70  30  30  10
MSY  88  78  91  79 /  80  30  30  10
GPT  88  77  90  79 /  60  30  20  10
PQL  89  75  90  77 /  60  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.