Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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376
FXUS64 KLIX 222033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. RAINFALL HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PRIMARILY SPOTTY ALMOST STRATIFORM OR VERY LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE MARINE LAYER INSTABILITY BELOW WARM MID-LAYER. THERE IS
STILL A SMALL WINDOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING SHUTS OFF AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RELAX TO
THE POINT WHERE RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 4 AM
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE INDICATED THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
FEW MODELS DO GRAZE THE SOUTHWEST MS COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN BUT
THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT UNTIL MORE RESOLUTION IN NEXT MODEL RUNS OR
TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE PERSISTENT NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STEADY STATE THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER
LARGE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND
DEVELOPS A STRONG SURFACE LOW TO BRING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA AND MAY INVOLVE SEVERE STORMS THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z BEFORE RADIATIONAL FOG
INDUCES MVFR CIGS/VSBY BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY TO VFR CAVOK FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS WINDS STEADILY WALK FROM WEAK OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EAST TOMORROW AND SOUTHEAST BY WEDNEDAY NIGHT THEN LIGHT STEADY
STATE ONSHORE FLOW THR0UGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DOES
NOT MOVE OFF THE COAST UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  81  59  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  59  81  60  81 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  77  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  62  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  59  79  57  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






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