Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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502
FXUS64 KLIX 042228
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THE THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GREATEST THREAT WILL
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
SOME THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES.

LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY ABOUT
12Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD EVEN AFTER SUNRISE.
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC AND MESOSCALE MODELS...HAVE
INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY...THUS NECESSITATING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOTH WILKINSON AND AMITE COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 3AM UNTIL 3PM...THOUGH THE MAIN
THREAT TIME APPEARS TO BE FROM JUST AFTER 6AM UNTIL JUST AFTER
NOON. IF MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...THE COLD AIR
MAY ARRIVE JUST A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST AND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AND
PARISHES BEFORE THIS EVENT IS OVER. ANYONE WITH INTERESTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY UPDATES TO EXPECTED IMPACTS.

REGARDING THE CURRENT FORECAST...AM GENERALLY CARRYING 0.05 INCHES
OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR NORTHWEST WILKINSON COUNTY WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IF THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
MONITORING TEMPERATURES AND RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY AND WILL
UPDATE/EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A WHOPPING 40 PLUS DEGREES COLDER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AFTER SUNSET ON THURSDAY AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT IS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR. WITH
TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN SO WARM THE LAST FEW DAYS AND MANY PLANTS
ALREADY STARTING TO GREEN UP FOR THE SPRING...WILL LIKELY NEED TO
ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME IN
AN EFFORT TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THOUGH IT IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS TIME...SHOULD MENTION
THAT THE SREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOME OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF ANY PRECIP
WERE TO OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...WE
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN THREAT AREAS WOULD BE THE NORTH SHORE AND INLAND AREAS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO
SOMEWHAT BACK OFF OF THIS SOLUTION. THOUGH IT KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE EARLY MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE QPF REMOVED
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF. BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK FORECAST TO BE IN THE AREA...I CAN/T RULE IT OUT
ENTIRELY...BUT THE ODDS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO
WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST CYCLES.

CONDITIONS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY
WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
MORE NEAR THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW PARKS ITSELF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THEY
GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
BRINGING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES HAVE TO DO WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES. IN ALL...HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT REMAINING BELOW THE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A RANGE OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. CIGS WILL LOWER SOME TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS START TO
DETERIORATE AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT
THE TERMINALS FORM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING AROUND 6Z THROUGH
18Z TOMORROW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AROUND
KMCB EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT
IN TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL GREATLY INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE WINDS TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF
THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT WITH FOG EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD...WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A PREEMPTIVE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR VISIBILITY OBSERVATION
TRENDS THIS EVENING AND MIGHT NEED TO ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FROM 15Z
THURSDAY THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME AS STRONG WINDS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT THIS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO A GALE WARNING FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS AS FREQUENT GUSTS COULD
TOP GALE FORCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO EASE SOME TIME FRIDAY...AND A GENERAL NORTHEAST
WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET SHOULD LINGER INTO
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
GULF SOUTH. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE A BIT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SW MS
             WIND ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SE LA

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  36  38  25  48 /  80  70  10  10
BTR  39  41  28  50 /  70  60  10  10
ASD  49  53  32  52 /  50  60  10  10
MSY  53  56  35  50 /  50  50  20  10
GPT  56  57  33  52 /  50  60  20  10
PQL  59  59  33  52 /  40  60  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...13/MH
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






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