Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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671
FXUS64 KLIX 222033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW WRAPPING UP TIGHTLY
AS ITS MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE VA/MD/NJ COASTLINES. A WEAKER TROUGH
IS TRACKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO AND
OVER OUR AREA. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE HAS
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 2 MORNINGS.
THIS IS A PRIME SETUP FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN NERN ZONES. SO
EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S FOR THOSE AREAS AND HAVE
KEPT PREVIOUS FCST LOWS WHICH WERE RIGHT INLINE WITH THAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE AND THUS ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.

MODELS SHOW THAT THIS UPPER HIGH WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING AND COULD SEE
RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANDELEUR AND BRETON
SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FOR
PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RELAXES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST GETS
RE-ENFORCED. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MARINE AREA IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  51  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  48  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  56  74 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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